\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 017 Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) )
Key investment points
The performance was slightly lower than expected due to the epidemic, and the orders on hand are still very sufficient:
In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 94 million yuan (YoY + 22.0%, Mom - 24.25%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 37 million yuan (YoY + 0.18%, Mom - 22.7%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 26.5 million yuan (YoY + 10.8%, Mom - 29.9%). The performance growth rate is slightly lower than expected, mainly due to: 1) the performance of 2021q1 is at a historical high, with a high base in the same period; 2) Since March 2022, the epidemic situation in East China has affected the overall production, receipt and delivery to a certain extent. 3) In 2022q1, due to the suspension of work during the Spring Festival, the performance declined month on month.
The company still has sufficient orders on hand. By the end of 2022q1, the contract liabilities and inventory of the company were 7.779 million yuan and 197 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 44% / + 54% respectively. With the rapid resumption of the epidemic, the demand of the downstream industry is still uncertain, but the demand of the harmonic reducer is still uncertain in the short term. In the long run, according to our calculation, there is still a supply gap of 27.5/12.175000 units in the global harmonic reducer Market from 2022 to 2024; At the same time, under the catalysis of the epidemic, the trend of "machine replacement" is expected to accelerate, so the harmonic reducer industry will continue to be in short supply. Under the capacity expansion, the company's market share is expected to increase rapidly, and its performance is expected to continue to grow rapidly.
The gross profit margin remained high, and the increase in the rate of management and R & D expenses reduced the net profit margin of sales:
In 2022q1, the gross profit margin of the company's sales was 52.4% (year-on-year -0.2pct, flat month on month), basically maintaining a high level. In 2022q1, the net profit margin of sales was 39.0% (YoY - 8.4pct, mom + 0.6pct). The net profit margin of sales decreased significantly year-on-year, mainly due to the increase of the expense rate during the period to 14.9% (YoY + 7.1pct), of which the sales expense rate was 1.4% (YoY - 0.3pct), the management expense rate was 6.2% (YoY + 2.8pct), the financial expense rate was - 4.9% (YoY + 1.1pct), and the R & D expense rate was 12.2% (YoY + 3.4pct), It can be seen that the increase in cost rate during the period is mainly due to the increase in management and R & D cost rate. We judge that the increase of the company's management expenses is mainly due to the provision of share based payment expenses. After excluding the impact of share based payment, the management expense rate is 3.8% (year-on-year + 0.5pct), and the net sales interest rate is 42.8% (year-on-year - 4.6pct).
New products + new applications broaden the long-term growth boundary:
At present, the main downstream of the company is still Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) and is gradually expanding non Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) applications: ① Mechatronics: it mainly integrates servo, harmonic reducer, sensor and other parts into modules to improve the comprehensive performance of products. At present, the company mainly focuses on the downstream of CNC machine tools. We predict that the market scale of harmonic reducer for CNC machine tools in China from 2021 to 2025 will be CAGR = 41%, which will add more increment to the harmonic reducer Market. ② Electro hydraulic servo: electro hydraulic servo system is an automatic control equipment with liquid as power transmission medium. It has the characteristics of fast response speed, large power mass ratio and large load resistance stiffness. It is the most ideal driving equipment for mobile Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) equipment. In the future, with the quadruped Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) gradually opening the prelude to industrialization, the electro-hydraulic servo system can be expected in the future. ③ E series harmonic reducer: through the comprehensive optimization of harmonic tooth shape, meshing, heat treatment and sealing structure, it can improve the oil leakage resistance of products and reduce the operating noise. It is suitable for high-end fields such as semiconductor and medical treatment. In 2021, the company has achieved revenue of 24 million yuan (year-on-year + 231.6%) in the field of CNC machine tools and 14 million yuan (year-on-year + 237.3%) in the field of medical devices, accounting for 8.5% of the total revenue. In addition, there are small batch shipments in the field of semiconductor equipment. The application of these new products and new fields will further broaden the company's long-term growth boundary.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the impact of the epidemic on the company, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 269 (down 13%) / 3.90 (down 8%) / 519 (down 6%). The current market value corresponds to PE of 39 / 27 / 20 times respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the prosperity of the industry is lower than expected; The development of new business is not as expected.
