\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 23 Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) )
The pattern of coke industry continues to improve, and the development of hydrogen energy has entered the fast lane. Maintain “buy” rating
The company released an annual report, and achieved a revenue of 21.29 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 65.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 269.2%. At the same time, the company released its first quarterly report. In 2022, Q1 achieved a revenue of 6.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 63.95%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 680 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.07%. In 2021, the supply pattern of the coke industry continued to be optimized, the coke price continued to rise, the downstream demand remained strong, and the simultaneous rise of volume and price led to a significant increase in the company’s performance. Since 2022, the coke price is still on the high side, but the increase of raw coal is greater than that of coke price, and the profit space is suppressed. Meanwhile, due to the shutdown and upgrading of Meijin coal chemical coke oven, a wholly-owned subsidiary, we lowered the profit forecast for 20222023 and added the forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be RMB 2.24 (previous value 28.39) / 28.4 (previous value 48.35) / 3.03 billion, a year-on-year increase of – 12.6% / + 26.5% / 6.8%; EPS is 0.53/0.66/0.71 yuan; Corresponding to the current share price, PE is 19.9/15.7/14.7 times. The company’s newly arranged hydrogen energy industry is in the business growth period. Under the background of “carbon neutralization”, hydrogen energy is a clean energy encouraged by national policies. The top-level document of national hydrogen energy planning has been issued and is optimistic about its future growth space. Maintain the “buy” rating.
In 2021, the coke supply pattern continued to be optimized, and the volume and price rose together, driving the performance to rise sharply
Coke production and sales increased steadily. In 2021, the company achieved coke output of 5.62 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 3.37%; The sales volume was 5.7512 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 2.62%. The profit per ton of coke increased significantly. In 2021, the company’s selling price per ton of coke was 365611 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 66.54%; The cost per ton of coke was 254208 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 47.44%; The gross profit per ton of coke was 111403 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 642.8 yuan / ton, or 136.41%; The gross profit margin is 30.47%, an increase of 9 PCT compared with 2020, mainly due to the improvement of coking coal self-sufficiency rate. According to the calculation, the self-sufficiency rate of raw coal of the company in 2021 is 39.59%, an increase of 9.59 PCT compared with 2020.
In 2022, Q1’s profit space is under pressure, mainly due to the sharp rise in the price of raw coal
Coke prices are on the high side. In 2022, the average price of Q1 Shanxi Taiyuan primary metallurgical coke was 2876.7 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 19.9%; The average market price of Shanxi Luliang main coking coal was 2418.3 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 90.7%. Coke prices are still on the high side, but the increase is significantly lower than that of coking coal. The first quarter was off-season, superimposed with the impact of production restriction of the Winter Olympic Games. As the middle reaches of the coal coke steel industry chain, coke has relatively weak bargaining power, and the profit space is squeezed in the short term. Considering the country’s determination to “stabilize growth”, when the epidemic gradually improves and the downstream demand recovers, it may boost the further rise of coke price, which is conducive to the recovery of the company’s profitability.
The top plan for hydrogen energy has been issued. The company has laid out the whole hydrogen energy industry chain and can grow in the future
On March 23, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the medium and long term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035), which clearly pointed out the development objectives of hydrogen energy sources and application terminals. In the era of “carbon neutralization”, the company took the lead in opening the road of green and low-carbon transformation, and has formed a closed-loop hydrogen energy industry chain of “manufacturing storage transportation processing vehicle demonstration operation”. The ceiling of hydrogen energy development is mainly determined by the application scenario. The company has two major new energy commercial vehicle manufacturing and sales companies (Feichi Technology & Qingdao Meijin). In 2021, the company achieved the output of 601 commercial vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 85.5%, including 362 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
Risk warning: the economic recovery is not as expected; Coke prices fell sharply; The progress of hydrogen energy project is less than expected
