\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 19 Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) )
Event: the company released the report for the first quarter of 2022, realizing a main revenue of 6.328 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.51%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 255 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.43%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 207 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.38%, of which the non recurring profit and loss was about 47 million yuan, mainly due to government subsidies.
Comments:
22q1 profit was slightly affected. The company's 22q1 performance is near the median value of the previous performance forecast. The net profit attributable to the parent company and net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company per ton of products of 22q1 company are RMB 5100 and RMB 4100 respectively, and the profit is slightly affected. This was mainly due to the rise in the price of raw material liquid alkali in the first quarter, which affected some profits, and the credit impairment of 22q1 was about 37 million yuan.
Capacity continues to expand. In terms of sales volume, the total sales volume of ternary precursor and Co3O4 of 2022q1 company is about 50000 tons, and we expect a year-on-year increase of about 36%. In terms of production capacity, by the end of 2021, there was a production capacity of 200000 tons / ternary precursor and 30000 tons of Co3O4. It is expected that the production capacity will exceed 500000 tons in 2023, maintaining the level of the first echelon in the industry.
Optimistic about the integrated layout. 1) The company actively arranges the pyrometallurgical high nickel matte project. It is expected that the first phase will be put into operation in the third quarter of 22 years, and the back-end smelting will be arranged at the same time. With the gradual operation of the integrated project, it is expected to increase the profitability of single ton products. 2) At the same time, the company is involved in lithium iron phosphate materials and plans to contribute to the performance and create the second growth curve after 23 years.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we predict that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 45.41 billion yuan, 65.16 billion yuan and 79.27 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 126.2%, 43.5% and 21.7%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.912 billion yuan, 3.350 billion yuan and 4.151 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 103.6%, 75.2% and 23.9%. The current share price corresponds to 25.60, 14.61 and 11.79 times of PE from 2022 to 2024, respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk factors: the risk that the company's capacity expansion is less than expected; The risk of profit decline caused by intensified industry competition; Risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices.
