\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 012 Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) )
The company's profit is at a short-term trough and is expected to recover gradually in the future
Subject to the pressure on the cost side, the company's profit is at a short-term trough and is expected to gradually recover in the future. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 80.932 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.27%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 9.086 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.24%. In 2022, Q1 achieved a revenue of 18.595 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.30%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.664 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.46%. Subject to the continuous rise of silicon material price in 2021, the fluctuation of shipping freight and exchange rate, the company's profit is under pressure. In addition, in 2021, the impairment of the company's fixed assets was 870 million yuan, of which the impairment of M6 products was about 500 million yuan. With the gradual release of silicon material production capacity, the company's profits will stabilize and recover. We lowered the profit forecast for 2022 / 2023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 is expected to reach 13.728 (- 9.75) / 17.217 (- 16.38) / 21.301 billion yuan, EPS is 2.54/3.18/3.94 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding P / E ratio of the current stock price is 26.8/21.4/17.3 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Silicon wafer and component business ranks first in the industry, showing profitability under high cost
The company's silicon wafer and component business ranks first in the industry, demonstrating profitability under high costs and expenses. In 2021, the company shipped 70gw of silicon wafers, with a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, accounting for about 43.6% of the industry market; The shipment of components was 38.52gw, with a year-on-year increase of 55.5%. The market share of the industry was about 22.7%. The market share of silicon wafer and components industry ranked first in the world. The company shipped 18.4gw of Q1 silicon wafer in 2022, and it is expected to ship 90-100gw in the whole year; The shipment of components is 6.44gw, and the annual shipment is expected to be 50-60gw, continuing to rank first in the industry. In 2021, the company's silicon wafer non silicon cost decreased by 7% year-on-year. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company's silicon wafer business was 27.6% (- 2.8pctsyoy) and the gross profit margin of integrated components was 17.1% (- 3.5pctsyoy), showing profitability under the disturbance of costs and expenses.
The mass production of new battery technology is imminent, and BIPV and photovoltaic hydrogen production technology have significant first mover advantages
The company's overweight new battery technology, BIPV and photovoltaic hydrogen production technology have significant first mover advantages. The company actively promotes the R & D and layout of a variety of new battery technologies, and is expected to put into operation new battery products in the second half of 2022, so as to further enhance the company's competitive advantage in technology and product differentiation. In addition, the company focuses on the R & D, production and sales of BIPV products, and works with Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) to build industry benchmark products. In terms of photovoltaic hydrogen production, the company has a 500MW hydrogen production capacity, with significant technological first mover advantages, which is expected to open up long-term growth space for the company.
Risk tip: the market competition of photovoltaic industry intensifies and the development of new technologies is less than expected
