\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 594 Byd Company Limited(002594) )
Key investment points:
The prosperity of new energy vehicles continues to rise. Byd Company Limited(002594) has the three electric core independent technology of new energy vehicles, and its DM-I hybrid model will become its new growth point. The construction of E platform 3.0 and the layout of vertical industrial chain will further reduce its production cost, improve profitability and stabilize the security of supply chain. At present, the company's products are in short supply, and the profitability will be further enhanced after the gradual release of production capacity.
Adhere to independent research and development, multi business collaborative development, and complete the global layout
The company has always adhered to independent development. At present, the business layout covers the fields of electronics, automobile, new energy and rail transit. Various businesses cooperate with each other and expand simultaneously in China and abroad. After more than 20 years of rapid development, the company has set up more than 30 industrial parks around the world to realize the strategic layout of six continents around the world.
Strong vertical integration ability of industrial chain
Byd Company Limited(002594) automobile has an independent and mature industrial chain in battery, motor and electronic control. For the raw materials such as lithium carbonate necessary for batteries, the supply and production of lithium batteries can be guaranteed by establishing joint ventures with upstream enterprises or signing long-term contracts with Qinghai Salt Lake, Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) and other companies.
Accurately positioning the market demand and driving force of hybrid models
In the context of rising oil prices, the cost advantage of hybrid vehicles over fuel vehicles is further highlighted, and the problem of mileage anxiety can be solved. The company puts forward the dual platform strategy of hybrid system. Dm-p is mainly for customers with high performance requirements, while DM-I is more for daily users such as urban commuters.
Profit forecast and investment rating
We estimate that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 372734/499064/648661 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 73.63/120.75/18.072 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 2.53/4.15/6.21 yuan / share respectively, corresponding to about 81.05% CAGR in three years and 92x / 56x / 37x PE respectively. Using the segment valuation method, we believe that the reasonable market value of the company in 2022 is about 997474 billion yuan, and the corresponding target price is 369.1 yuan, which has great room for improvement compared with the current one. Considering the company's high-speed growth performance and good competitiveness, it is covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk tips
1) risk that the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; 2) The risk of intensified industry competition; 3) Upstream raw material price rise risk; 4) The risk of expanding production is less than expected.
