\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 985 China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) )
Event:
The company released its annual report for 2021 on April 27, 2022, realizing an operating revenue of 62.367 billion yuan, an increase of 19.30% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 8.038 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.07%, and the net cash flow from operating activities was 35.608 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.39%.
Comments:
The nuclear power business has developed steadily and various financial indicators are stable
In 2021, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin was 44.19%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.60pct, and the gross profit margin was relatively stable. The company’s comprehensive gross profit margins from Q1 to Q4 were 44.62% / 47.57% / 42.17% / 42.54% respectively. In 2021, the company’s expense control ability was greatly improved, and the net interest rate of this year was 22.54%, up 1.59pct year-on-year. At the end of 2021, the company’s asset liability ratio was 69.42%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.07pct, and the financial structure was stable.
3 commercial operators and 2 approved, and the nuclear power business has reached a new level
China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) Fuqing 5, Tianwan 6 and Fuqing 6 units were put into commercial operation on January 30, 2021, June 2, 2021 and March 25, 2022 respectively. As of March 31, 2022, the company controlled 25 nuclear power units in operation, with a total installed capacity of 23.71 million KW, accounting for 43.52% of the national commercial nuclear power units, and 6 nuclear power units under construction, with an installed capacity of 6.353 million KW. On April 20, 2022, the national Standing Committee approved two 1250MW cap1000 units of Sanmen 3 and 4, and the scale of the company’s new projects continued to increase.
New energy continues to develop, and a comprehensive green power operator system has been formed
As of March 31, 2022, the company’s new energy installed capacity was 8.8733 million KW, including 2.6347 million kw of wind power and 6.2386 million kw of photovoltaic power. The installed capacity of new energy projects under construction is 2.065 million KW, including 270000 kW of wind power and 1.795 million kw of photovoltaic power. In 2021, the company’s new energy power generation capacity was 9.514 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 68.69%; Among them, photovoltaic power generation was 4.965 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 109.77%, and wind power generation was 4.549 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 39%.
The market-oriented electricity transaction price has increased, and the nuclear power price has begun to rise
Affected by the high coal price, from November 2021 to may 2022, the centralized bidding results of Jiangsu power were more than 460 yuan / MWh, nearly 20% higher than the benchmark on grid price of 391 yuan / MWh. Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, coal prices outside China have been upside down. We believe that China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal is at the balance point of power supply and carbon reduction. The medium and long-term coal price has strong support. The market-oriented electricity transaction price of all provinces will rise. Nuclear power will participate in market-oriented transactions and follow the rise of thermal power price. In the first quarter of 2022, the China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) gross profit margin reached 51.46%, a record high in a single quarter, with a month on month increase of 892pct, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.884 billion yuan, a month on month increase of 88.34%, and the logic of nuclear power price rise is being fulfilled.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) units in operation account for half of the country. The steady cash flow of nuclear power units can support the company’s continuous development of new energy projects and inject growth. We estimate that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2023 will be 80.25/86.24 billion yuan (original value: 79.86/85.85 billion yuan), and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 10.76/11.75 billion yuan (original value: 10.79/11.83 billion yuan). At the same time, the 24-year profit forecast revenue will be 92.84 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 12.99 billion yuan, and the EPS will be 0.57/0.62/0.69 yuan / share, corresponding to 12.6/11.5/10.4 times of PE. Due to the large growth space of the company’s new energy business, we give the company 19 times PE in 22 years, and the target price is 10.83 yuan, slightly higher than the original target price of 10.8 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Nuclear power operation accident risk and new energy project development are less than expected
