Fund size: the growth of equity fund size is mainly due to net capital inflow. According to the standards of China Foundation Association, the scale of non monetary funds reached 16.1 trillion yuan at the end of 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 36%. 1) The scale of equity funds + 34% reached 8.6 trillion yuan, of which 80% was driven by net capital inflow, and only 20% was due to the rise of net fund value. 2) The rise of “fixed income +” funds, with the scale of bond funds + 50% to 4.1 trillion yuan.
Fund companies: both volume and price rise, promoting the high growth of fund companies’ operating performance. 1) Management fee income: in 2021, the non cargo based management fee income reached 118.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 62%, and the management rate was + 0.12 PCT To 0.75%. Among them, the management fee income of equity funds reached 98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 75%, and the management fee rate was + 0.27pct To 1.12%. 2) Operating income: the total operating income of 43 fund companies was 118.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 35%. Among them, the revenue growth rate of head fund companies is generally higher than the average growth rate, and the revenue growth rates of e fund, huitianfu, GF, China Merchants and Jingshun Great Wall funds reach 58%, 41%, 50%, 62% and 70% respectively. 3) Net profit: the total net profit of 47 fund companies was 38.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 40%, with an average roe of 26%, a year-on-year increase of + 4.3ppct. The differentiation of net profit is more obvious. The net profit growth rate of head fund companies is more than 40%, and the roe mostly exceeds the average roe; The net profit of some small fund companies has decreased significantly, and it is even difficult to make profits. The head funds are mostly securities companies, and the profit contribution rate of GF fund and e fund under Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) is 23% Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) holding huitianfu, Dongzheng asset management and Great Wall Fund have a profit contribution rate of 50%.
Sales organizations: fund sales organizations make more money than fund management organizations, and the competition is also more intense. The revenue of the sales organization includes: 1) customer maintenance fee (trailing Commission): the bargaining power of the sales organization is improved, and the proportion of trailing Commission is increased. Part of the management fee charged by the fund manager will be shared with the sales organization. In 2021, the share proportion has reached 29% and that of equity funds has reached 33%. 2) Subscription / subscription fee / sales service fee: the proportion of class C funds increased, and the sales service fee increased rapidly. At present, there are 420 sales organizations in the whole market (including banks, securities companies, independent sales organizations, etc.). From the perspective of retention scale, banks dominate, but their market share is eroded by independent sales organizations; In terms of concentration, the market share of head sales organizations decreased slightly from 2021q1 to Q4, the competition pattern is still unstable, and all organizations are making efforts. Independent fund sales institutions such as the Internet implement lower rates in the form of discount of subscription fees to quickly seize market share; In order to consolidate their market share, banks and other institutions use class C funds to attract investors without charging front-end subscription fees (charging sales service fees according to holding time). In 2021, the scale of class C non monetary funds increased by + 107% year-on-year to 1.5 trillion yuan, accounting for + 3.1 PCT To 9.1%; The non monetary fund sales service fee has also increased, with a year-on-year increase of + 84% to 9 billion yuan in 2021.
Outlook for 2022: the growth of the public fund industry is expected to continue, driving the performance of relevant industrial chain institutions to maintain positive growth. Under neutral assumptions, we expect the scale of equity funds to reach 1.01 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of + 15.2%; The scale of non monetary funds reached 1.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.4%. The income of fund managers (management fees minus tail Commission) was 113.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.9%. The revenue of sales institutions was 125.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.9%, of which the tail commission based on ownership + sales service fee is expected to account for 60%, and the subscription / subscription fee based on transaction will account for 40%. We believe that in the future, the proportion of revenue based on ownership in the public fund industry is expected to continue to increase, and the sensitivity of the industry cycle will be reduced. It is suggested to pay attention to China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , CICC h, which are greatly affected by market sentiment but the long-term growth logic remains unchanged.
Risk warning: the capital market fell sharply, resulting in the decline of the net value of the fund; The net inflow of fund funds is less than expected; The intensification of market competition leads to the decline of relevant rates; The forecast is based on certain assumptions and there is a risk of deviation
