V industrial chain price tracking
Silicon material: single crystal compact material is about 249 yuan / kg [+ 2%] (changed year-on-year and last month, the same below). At present, the orders of mainstream silicon material enterprises in the Chinese market are basically fully signed, and even the delivery schedule of orders of silicon material enterprises has reached next month. The overall supply of silicon material in China is still in short supply. Silicon wafer: single crystal M6 silicon wafer is 5.5-5.64 yuan / piece [+ 3%], M10 silicon wafer is 6.77-6.79 yuan / piece [+ 2%], G12 silicon wafer is 9.05 yuan / piece [+ 2%]. At present, the demand for silicon wafers in China is relatively stable, but the tight supply of silicon materials in the upstream still limits the output improvement of Chinese silicon wafer enterprises to a certain extent. The slicing link of some silicon wafer enterprises is still limited. At the same time, affected by the epidemic, there are still problems such as delayed arrival of silicon wafers.
Cell: single crystal M6 cell 1.1-1.11 yuan / w [+ 1%], M10 cell 1.15-1.17 yuan / w [+ 2%], G12 cell 1.15-1.17 yuan / w [+ 0%]. Near the end of last week, China’s leading battery enterprises raised the price of single crystal batteries, and other battery manufacturers followed up. Under the condition of good demand for large-size batteries, the high price transactions of M10 and G12 battery chips gradually increased. Although the quotation of M6 battery increased by 0.02 yuan / W, the downstream demand shrank, and the actual transaction price basically remained at about 1.1 yuan / W.
Components: the price of 182 components is about 1.84-1.93 yuan / w [+ 1%], and the price of 210 components is about 1.84-1.92 yuan / w [- 1%]. Driven by the rising prices of silicon materials and related auxiliary materials upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain, the current module prices have increased. Recently, although the orders and shipments of China’s mainstream component manufacturers have decreased significantly in the Indian market, the demand in other overseas markets, especially in Europe and other regions, continues to increase. The overall start-up of Chinese projects is general due to the high price of relevant materials. At present, the output volume of hjt components in China is still small, and the price remains in the range of 1.95-2.1 yuan / W.
Estimated profit distribution of the whole industry chain
M6 single glass: silicon material cost 0.13 + silicon material gross profit 0.48 + silicon wafer non silicon cost 0.10 + silicon wafer gross profit 0.10 + battery wafer non silicon cost 0.18 + battery wafer gross profit 0.02 + component non silicon cost 0.69 + component gross profit -0.06 + VAT 0.21 = 1.86 (yuan / W);
M10 single glass: silicon material cost 0.13 + silicon material gross profit 0.48 + silicon wafer non silicon cost 0.10 + silicon wafer gross profit 0.09 + battery wafer non silicon cost 0.17 + battery wafer gross profit 0.08 + component non silicon cost 0.64 + component gross profit -0.02 + value-added tax 0.22 = 1.90 (yuan / W).
Bidding capacity of wind power industry chain price bidding, bid winning capacity and price tracking (incomplete statistics): since the beginning of 2022, the total capacity of wind turbine bidding is about 29.07gw (26.32gw of land wind + 2.75gw of sea wind). In April, the bidding volume of wind turbine was 11.06gw (10.31gw of land wind + 0.75gw of sea wind), including 3.92gw of Chinese household appliances, 1.96gw of Huadian Group, 1.50gw of Huaneng Group, 0.80gw of CGN and 0.65gw of Datang Group, Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) and other enterprises contributed 2.23gw.
Bid winning capacity: since the beginning of 2022, the fixed amount of wind turbine is 13.83gw. The top three manufacturers of bid winning capacity, vision energy, Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) won the bid of 3.39gw, 2.13gw and 1.73gw respectively, accounting for 52% of the total bid winning capacity. In April, it won the bid of about 7.47gw, and the top three manufacturers Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) , vision energy won the bid of 1.54gw, 1.37gw and 1.26gw respectively, accounting for 56% of the total bid winning capacity.
Since the opening of bidding for large wind turbines, the average price of wind turbines has decreased significantly since 2021. In April 2022, the average bid winning price of onshore wind turbines (excluding towers) was 1911 yuan / kW, down 11.57% month on month, a record low.
Data tracking of generation side and sales side
From January to March 2022, 8.04gw of wind power (7.78gw of land wind + 0.26gw of sea wind) and 11.42gw of photovoltaic power will be added across the country. By the end of March 2022, the national installed power generation capacity was 240367 GW, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%. Among them, the installed capacity of wind power is 336.52gw (309.87gw of land wind + 26.65gw of sea wind), with a year-on-year increase of 17.4% Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation installed capacity 318.55gw (photovoltaic 317.98gw + photothermal 0.57gw), with a year-on-year increase of 22.9%.
Risk tips
Risk of policy change; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The consumption of new energy is less than expected.
