The epidemic affected 25-28% of electric vehicle production, and the sales volume may decline to 33 Shenzhen Capstone Industrial Co.Ltd(000038) 0000 in April, which is expected to return to high growth in June. The epidemic in Shanghai has a short-term impact on the new energy vehicle industry chain. Tesla, SAIC and other auto enterprises have reduced production and stopped production since the end of March. With the release of the guidelines on epidemic prevention and control of resumption of work and production by Shanghai Municipal Commission of economy and information technology, the automobile industry chain will gradually resume work and production. We expect to gradually recover in mid and late May, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles will continue to return to a high growth trend from June. The overall car watching enterprises are gradually put into operation, but the supply chain and logistics have not yet returned to the pre epidemic level. Under this pressure, the output of car watching enterprises will still be partially affected. Under the aggravation of the impact of the epidemic in Shanghai, in addition to the damage to the production and supply chain of some automobile enterprises, the consumption of new energy vehicles in Shanghai will also decline sharply from April to May. We calculate that the impact of the epidemic on the production and sales of new energy vehicles in April will be 23.2%, corresponding to the output of 105000128000 vehicles. Considering that the consumption in Shanghai will affect the national sales by 4.6-5%, the actual impact on the sales in April will be 25-28% (considering the overlap between automobile enterprises and Shanghai consumption), We expect the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in April to be 327000376000.
Marion’s selling price rose 69% month on month in the first quarter. Lithium supply is still in short supply. It is optimistic that the profits of the industrial chain will gradually move up. On April 22, Mineral Resources announced the production and operation of MT Marion Q1 spodumene concentrate in the first quarter. The average sales price of MT Marion Q1 spodumene concentrate was 1952 US dollars / dry metric ton, up 69% month on month. As it is difficult to increase the supply of lithium ore in Western Australia in the short term, in the face of the high growth of downstream demand, the price of lithium concentrate is expected to start up after 2022. We believe that in the medium and short term, after losing the cheap long-term cooperation price dividend of lithium concentrate, the profitability of lithium salt processing enterprises will continue to be compressed. On the contrary, the profits will continue to move upward to the upstream resource side. We are optimistic about mining enterprises with high-quality resources and lithium salt processing manufacturers with a high proportion of ore self supply.
Investment suggestion: we expect that the lithium resource market will continue to strengthen, the mismatch cycle of this round of supply and demand will exceed expectations, and the prices of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate are expected to remain high. When the promotion progress of overseas new supply is less than expected, we should pay more attention to the relevant listed companies with low development cost and high-quality lithium resources, who can obtain higher gross profit with lower cost in the price rise, Therefore, the performance elasticity is relatively large; In addition, China’s listed companies with relevant resources have integrated the production and sales of lithium salt through lithium mining. With the continuous improvement of the new energy vehicle market, the end demand vehicle enterprises seek to extend upward and directly sign supply agreements with lithium salt manufacturers to reduce the cost of the industrial chain. The listed companies with relevant integrated layout are expected to continue to expand their market share by virtue of price advantages. In addition, pay attention to the growth opportunities of lithium battery industry chain brought by the continuous expansion of battery manufacturers’ capacity under the high prospect of new energy vehicle industry. The promotion of downstream demand has also driven the strong order demand of midstream battery material manufacturers. We can pay attention to the leading cathode material manufacturers with deep layout of high nickel ternary technology in cathode materials and obvious advantages in overseas business expansion, as well as the leading diaphragm manufacturers whose supply is still in short supply.
Risk tip: the production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, the competition in lithium battery industry is intensified, the recovery of new energy power generation industry is less than expected, the price of raw materials in the industrial chain fluctuates sharply, and the policies of new energy industry are less than expected.
