Core view:
In March, the decline in the sales area and sales amount of commercial houses across the country further expanded, and the sales situation of cities at all levels was lower than expected. The pressure on the sales side continued to transmit to the price side, and the downward pressure on house prices in low-energy cities was still great, which led to the negative increase of house prices in 70 cities month on month.
Fundamentals accelerated downward, and the growth rate of real estate investment decreased significantly. In March, the national land purchase area hit a record low, a total of 6 cities completed centralized land supply, and the scale of land supply decreased significantly. The area of new construction, construction and completion of real estate enterprises decreased significantly year-on-year, and the short-term new construction will continue to be under pressure.
The policy signal of "stabilizing real estate" of the national Standing Committee and the financial commission of the State Council is positive, and the policy of stabilizing real estate is loosened in many places. It is expected that the relevant policies will be implemented in the near future.
Looking forward to the second quarter, the real estate policy is expected to continue to increase under the downward pressure of the real estate market. Overall, the real estate policy in the first quarter is still in the exploratory period, and the policy direction and policy strength are still gradually adjusted with the market feedback. However, the positive policy signal of "stabilizing real estate" released by the central government is gradually dispelling the doubts of local governments about loosening the real estate policy, and shows the characteristics of the lower the urban energy level and the greater the easing of local policies. In view of the deterioration of real estate sales, investment and house price data, in order to promote the recovery of the real estate market, the strength of real estate policies in the second quarter will be strengthened, and focus on the direction beneficial to the market, starting from the supply and demand sides to stimulate the recovery of the industry. It is expected that the loose policies of local real estate will continue to increase, and the loosening of real estate policies in the second and third tier cities will be significantly greater than those in the first tier cities.
Under the background of continuous policy recovery, we believe that the real estate industry still faces great downward pressure in the second quarter, but the probability of fundamental performance will be stronger than that in the first quarter. This mainly takes into account two points: first, from the recovery of policies to the recovery of real estate sales, the market still needs some observation, digestion and response time. From the high-frequency data in April, the average number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large and medium-sized cities in one day from April 1 to 24 was 2502, compared with 5302 in the same period last year, and the real estate is still in the stage of accelerating downward; Second, insufficient demand is one of the important factors restricting the recovery of the property market. According to the Kerry survey, under the continuous influence of the epidemic and other factors, 40% of home buyers have delayed their purchase plans due to lower income, and 30% of home buyers have a wait-and-see mood due to recent house price fluctuations. However, we also see that there is still a large policy space at present, and the policy is expected to continue to increase in the second quarter. In view of the signs that the first tier cities have stabilized in the first quarter, it is expected that the fundamentals of more cities will improve in the second quarter under the continuous guidance of the policy.
