\u3000\u30 Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) 06 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) )
Key investment points
High base & income growth slowed down under the disturbance of the epidemic, and e-commerce performed well
In terms of business, the main business grew steadily and the structure continued to be optimized: the sanitary napkin business achieved double-digit growth, and the proportion of medium and high-end continued to increase. Adult diapers achieved positive growth, while Baby Diapers & ODM business declined slightly. In terms of sub channels, the growth rate of e-commerce is bright: during the period, the growth rate of e-commerce channels exceeded 70%, and the cash is bright, accounting for about 15%; Ka maintained a rapid growth rate, mainly benefiting from the continuous expansion of peripheral provinces; The distribution channel declined slightly, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic in the core area.
In terms of sub regions, the core regions are stable and the peripheral provinces are growing rapidly: during the period, the income of Sichuan and Chongqing has remained stable, and the income of Yunnan, Guizhou and Shaanxi has declined slightly due to the impact of Shaanxi epidemic. The company continues to increase the distribution rate of core regions, and is expected to contribute to the increase in the follow-up; Peripheral provinces have achieved rapid growth, with an expected growth rate of more than 30%. Considering the gradual weakening of the impact of the epidemic on the core region, we are optimistic about the improvement of subsequent revenue.
Continue to increase the cost of investment, optimistic about the volume of new products & continuous optimization of structure
From the perspective of cost investment, the industry competition was still fierce during the period, and the pricing strategies of various brands were more radical. The company continued its previous strategy, increased the investment of advertising and publicity expenses, paid particular attention to the expansion of e-commerce channels and peripheral provinces, and seized the market share. The sales cost rate of 22q1 was 21.70% (+ 6.51pct). On the product side, the company has sufficient reserves of new products and is expected to launch a new product series in the near future, driving the continuous optimization and upgrading of the structure.
The sales expense ratio increased and the profitability decreased slightly
Profit margin: the gross profit margin of 22q1 company is 44.76% (-0.50pct), which is mainly due to multiple factors such as expense offset income, change of channel structure, raw materials and so on; The net interest rate was 12.83% (-6.99pct), which was mainly affected by the sharp rise in selling expenses.
Period expense rate: during 22q1, the expense rate was 29.39% (+ 7.38pct), of which the sales expense rate increased by 6.51pct to 21.7%, mainly because Q1 continued the investment in publicity expenses in the second half of the 21st century, and the expansion expenses of e-commerce and peripheral provinces increased rapidly. The management fee rate is 4.54% (+ 0.87pct), which is mainly affected by the equity incentive fee recognized by the company. The R & D expense rate is 3.30 (- 0.07pct), and the financial expense rate is - 0.14% (+ 0.07pct). Cash flow: the operating cash flow of 22q1 company was 18 million yuan (a decrease of 32 million yuan in the same period). On the one hand, it was affected by the increase of accounts receivable, on the other hand, it was affected by the stock of raw materials. In terms of accounts receivable, 22q1 was 206 million yuan (an increase of 79 million yuan compared with the same period last year), mainly due to the lag of short-term collection of accounts receivable from 38 promotional activities. Considering that the increased part mainly belongs to key customers, the collection certainty is high. In terms of operating efficiency, the number of inventory turnover days decreased by 1.82 days to 56.49 days.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company has deeply cultivated personal care, continuously optimized product structure, improved channel construction and smooth regional expansion. We expect the company's revenue to reach RMB 1.819 billion / 2.196 billion / 2.693 billion respectively from 2022 to 2024, an increase of 24.34% / 20.73% / 22.63% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 258 / 307 / 370 million yuan, an increase of 13.26% / 18.99% / 20.37% at the same time; The current market value corresponding to PE is 16.47x/13.84x/11.50x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips:
The regional expansion is less than predicted, the channel construction is less than expected, and the impact of the epidemic is intensified
