\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 29 Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) )
The company issued 2021 annual report and 2022 first quarter report. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 11.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.4%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 230 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.8%, and a deduction of non attributable net profit of 170 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.15%; In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 3.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.7%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 864000 yuan, a turnaround from loss to profit (the same period last year was – 110 million yuan), and a deduction of non attributable net profit of – 24.846 million yuan, compared with – 120 million yuan in the same period last year.
The optimization of product structure offsets the cost pressure, and the revenue growth in North China is remarkable. In 2021, the company’s medium and high-grade / ordinary products achieved revenue of 6.73/4.46 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 11.7% / 10.0%, sales volume / ASP / ton cost of + 2.4% / + 6.8% / + 8.2% respectively, and the company’s sales gross profit margin was – 0.7pct to 38.4% year-on-year, of which the beer sales gross profit margin was – 1.2pct to 38.9% year-on-year; The sales volume / ASP / ton cost of 2022q1 company was + 3.5% / 7.9% / 7.3% year-on-year respectively, the sales gross profit margin was + 0.4pct to 34.5% year-on-year, the sales volume of large single product U8 in 2022q1 increased by 70% year-on-year, and the optimization of product structure offset the cost pressure. In terms of regions, in 2021, the company’s revenue in North China / East China / South China / Central China / Northwest respectively reached 5.91/8.1/37.3/9.9/510 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18.1% / – 2.2% / + 4.8% / – 0.9% / – 3.5%. The stabilization and recovery of revenue in North China is the main source of the company’s growth, and the revenue in North China accounted for + 3.6pct to 49.4% year-on-year.
Profitability improved, and land acquisition and storage helped turn losses around. During 2021, the expense rate of the company was generally stable, and the net interest rate attributable to the parent company was + 0.1pct to 1.91% year-on-year; The ratio of sales / management / R & D / financial expenses of 2022q1 company was 11.9% / 13.3% / 2.0% / – 1.1%, respectively – 1.8% / – 1.1 / – 0.1 / – 0.2pct year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company / deducting non attributable to the parent company was + 3.9/3.5pct to 0.03% / – 0.8% year-on-year. The overall loss was significantly reduced, thanks to the land acquisition compensation of Shandong subsidiary of 50 million yuan (accounting for 1.6% of the current revenue and the expected increase income of 25.43 million), and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022q1 turned loss (the same period was – 110 million).
Yanjing’s profitability is expected to continue to improve in the future. From the statement side, the net profit margin between the merger and the parent company’s income statement in 2021 further expanded, from – 320 million to – 410 million in 2020, and the income tax rate was – 4pct to 34.1%. The loss of vulnerable subsidiaries is still the main problem of the company. The net profit margin deducted from non parent company in 2021 is the same, and the year-on-year + 3.5pct in 2022q1 is in progress; From the perspective of subsidiaries: the number of employees of the company will be further optimized in 2021. The number of employees in the parent company / subsidiaries will be reduced by 306 / 1533, 6267 / 19878 respectively, and the personnel will continue to be optimized; In the annual report, the company disclosed that the number of joint-stock companies with a net profit impact of more than 10% reached 6, with the addition of Sichuan Yanjing and Hengyang Yanjing. The performance of the two regional subsidiaries was remarkable, with a revenue of 480 / 400 million and a net interest rate of 9.8% / 9.5% respectively. In 2021, the revenue of Guangxi Liquan / Baotou Xuelu / Yanjing (Chifeng) brewery was 39.9/5.3/750 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.7% / 19.4% / 15.2% respectively. The revenue increased brightly, and the net interest rate decreased slightly, but it is still higher than the overall level of the company. In the future, the loss reduction of weak subsidiaries and the growth of strong subsidiaries are expected to drive the continuous improvement of profitability.
Profit forecast: slightly adjust this early-stage profit forecast and introduce it into 2024. It is estimated that the company will achieve revenue of RMB 13.12/141.3/15.07 billion from 2022 to 2024 (originally RMB 12.20/12.92 billion from 202223), a year-on-year increase of + 9.7% / 7.7% / 6.6%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 38 / 53 / 750 million (originally RMB 410 / 510 million from 202223), a year-on-year increase of + 64.3% / 41.9% / 41.7%. At present, the price earnings ratio corresponding to 20222024 is 50 / 35 / 25X respectively, maintaining the rating of “overweight”.
Risk tips: the repeated impact of the epidemic is higher than expected, the promotion of large single products is lower than expected, and the industry competition is intensified.
