\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 791 Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) )
The growth rate dropped sharply, and the phased pressure on performance was obvious. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 8.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 30.7%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 890 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8.8%, slightly lower than the previous performance express (net profit attributable to the parent company of + 10.3%), deducting a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 880 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.9%, EPS of 2.77 yuan / share, and plans to pay 10 dividends of 3.5 yuan (including tax). In 2022q1, the operating revenue was 1.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.9%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was – 90 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 309.6%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was – 90 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 338.1%. The sharp decline in revenue growth was mainly affected by the shutdown caused by the epidemic, the lagging progress of downstream projects and the interruption of logistics.
Raw material price rise + product structure affects gross profit margin, and cash flow recovery is better than expected. According to the calculation, the per capita income of salespeople in 2021 was 1.351 million yuan, 1.256 million yuan in the same period of last year, a year-on-year increase of + 7.5%, continuing the growth trend. In terms of products, in 2021, all categories achieved growth in varying degrees. Door and window hardware / point support / door control / stainless steel guardrail / household / other building hardware were + 12.3% / + 29.0% / + 22.1% / + 14.1% / + 53.5% / + 86.9% year-on-year respectively, and the gross profit margin was 40.6% (- 3.4pp) / 32.6% (- 3.2pp) / 40.4% (+ 1.2pp) / 28.3% (- 6.8pp) / 36.0% (+ 2.6pp) / 23.1% (- 6.9pp), which was mainly dragged down by the rise in the price of raw materials, in which the cost of comprehensive materials was + 42.4% year-on-year, superimposed on the impact of product structure, In 2021, the comprehensive gross profit margin was 35.24%, with a year-on-year increase of -4.0pp. During the period, the expense rate was 20.4%, with a year-on-year rate of -1.98pp. Benefiting from the continued dilution of the expense rate, the profit of the hedging part declined, and the net interest rate achieved 10.9%, with a year-on-year rate of -1.97pp. In 2021, the net operating cash flow was RMB 550 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 9.1%. Under the background of the overall shortage of funds in the industrial chain, the overall payment collection was better than expected.
Q1 is a double drag on profitability. The gross profit margin and net profit margin of 2022q1 were 28.8% / – 6.9% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 7.4pp / – 11.0pp and a month-on-month increase of – 3.3pp / – 15.0pp. The period expense rate was 34.4%, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.3pp and a month on month increase of + 14.1pp. Among them, the sales / management / Finance / R & D expense rate was + 3.8pp / + 0.95pp / + 0.41pp / + 0.11pp respectively. The significant increase in the sales expense rate was mainly due to the increase in sales expenses caused by the increase in sales personnel. By the end of 2021, the company had 6518 sales personnel, with a year-on-year increase of.
Risk warning: the price rise of raw materials exceeds expectations; The promotion and sales of new products are less than expected; Recurrent epidemic
Investment suggestion: the leader in the integrated supply of building accessories, optimistic about the long-term development potential and maintain “buying”
As a leader in the integrated supply of China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) supporting parts, the company has obvious advantages in channel and product integration. Under the short-term multiple pressure centralized test, the company continues to sink the sales channels of prefecture level cities and counties, layout new products, constantly consolidate the foundation for future growth and look forward to the long-term development potential. Considering the suppression of short-term factors, the profit forecast is lowered. It is expected that the EPS in 22-24 years will be 3.39/4.68/6.27 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 23.4/17.0/12.7x. Considering the long-term growth potential of the company, the “buy” rating will continue to be maintained.
