\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 79 Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) )
In February, the northern part of the country was impacted by the epidemic, and the Q1 sales growth was impacted in a short time: the company’s revenue of 21q1 was 4.12 billion (+ 11.4%, excluding the influence of exchange rate + 14.1%), and the ASP of USD was + 6.8%. In particular, with the increase of the proportion of high unit price type, the ASP of Nike brand increased rapidly, and the ASP of RMB was + 4.0%; The sales volume was 51.14 million pairs (year-on-year + 7.1%), down from 56 million pairs in 21q4, mainly due to the 7-8-day Spring Festival holiday in February and the impact of the outbreak of the epidemic in northern Vietnam on the attendance rate of workers in some time, but it returned to normal in March.
Nike, Hoka and other high priced brands continue to lead the growth rate. By customer, 22q1 revenue, nike15 8.8 billion (excluding exchange rate + 23.1%), VF 8.8 billion RMB 4.9 billion (excluding exchange rate + 14.7%), Deckers 6.0% 4.9 billion (excluding exchange rate + 12.8%), puma 4.5 billion 6.8 billion (excluding exchange rate + 0.7%), ua2.5 billion 2.5 billion (excluding exchange rate + 53.2%), Nike and Hoka are still the fastest growing brands in terms of brands.
Net interest rates remained high. 22q1 gross profit margin is 25.6% (accounting standards change, comparable caliber is – 2.7pp, mainly from the overall gross profit margin lowered during the climbing period of the new factory and the impact of the epidemic), operating profit margin is 19.8 (- 1.1pp), income tax rate is 20.2% (- 5.2pp, which is related to the high base of income tax rate caused by special dividends in 21 years), net profit attributable to parent company is 650 million (+ 12.4%, excluding the impact of exchange rate + 15.2%), and net interest rate is 15.7% (+ 0.1pp).
22. The annual production capacity plan will not be reduced. In March, the attendance of employees has returned to normal, and the output gap of Q1 will be made up successively through subsequent quarters. From the perspective of annual capacity increment: 1) two of the three new factories in Vietnam climbed to 80% at the end of 21, 22 gave full play to the capacity potential throughout the year, and one of them will start phase 2 construction, which is expected to release capacity in the second half of the year; One vamp factory began to manufacture finished shoes at the end of the 21st century, and 22 production capacity continued to contribute to the production capacity by climbing monthly; 2) The old factories also contribute to the production capacity increment through efficiency improvement + transformation (capping plants or production lines, purchasing surrounding shoe factories to supplement production capacity); From the perspective of ASP in the whole year, the order proportion of brands and types benefiting from high unit price has increased, and the growth of USD ASP is expected to exceed the level of 21 years.
Profit forecast and Valuation: as a global leader in sports shoe manufacturing, the demand for sports fashion and jogging shoes that Huali is good at is growing vigorously. Huali itself has a very outstanding reputation for quality and delivery date. Under the epidemic situation, there is still considerable progress in production expansion, which has become a solid backing for a small number of large customers to undertake the continuous growth ambition, The industry pattern of short supply is expected to enable Huali, which is still in the expansion cycle, to benefit from the double growth of orders and unit price at the same time. It is estimated that in 22 / 23 / 24, the company’s revenue will be 21.4/261/30.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 23% / 22% / 18%, and the net profit will reach 3.50/42.6/5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 27% / 22% / 17%. In response to the valuation of 22 / 18 / 16x, the company has prominent manufacturing barriers in the sports shoe track, a clear growth path, abundant orders and maintains the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation in northern Vietnam affects recruitment, and the labor cost or raw material cost rises unexpectedly
