\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 271 Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) )
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022, realizing an operating revenue of 6.309 billion yuan, an increase of 17.31% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 317 million yuan, an increase of 7.07% at the same time; Deduct 297 million yuan of non parent net profit, an increase of 8.52% at the same time.
Comments:
The epidemic affected the delivery rhythm, and the cost side pressure remained: 22q1, the epidemic occurred in many places across the country, and the epidemic prevention and control measures were relatively strict, which affected the normal delivery and revenue recognition of the company’s products to a certain extent. At the same time, the price of petrochemical products such as asphalt in China remains high. The average price of SBS modified asphalt in East China is 4270 yuan / ton, an increase of 17.5% at the same time, and the cost pressure remains. Although the company raised the price in March, it should not be fully reflected in the operating results of the first quarter. The gross profit margin of the company was 28.28%, down 4.59pct; The net interest rate was 4.93%, down 0.44pct. It is worth noting that during the reporting period, the company undertook the amortization expense of equity incentive of 63 million yuan, an increase of 181.05% at the same time. Excluding the impact of this expense, the net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 20.83% at the same time.
The funds of downstream customers are still tight, superimposed with the increase of inventories, and the cash flow is under periodic pressure: during the reporting period, the net operating cash flow of the company was – 4.8 billion yuan, compared with – 2.4 billion yuan in the same period of last year. By the end of 22q1, the balance of other receivables (mainly performance bond) had reached 3.5 billion yuan, compared with 3.2 billion yuan in the same period of last year; The inventory balance was 2.4 billion yuan, compared with 1.2 billion yuan in the same period last year. We judge that although the company is actively expanding its non real estate business, the real estate business still accounts for the main share. The current capital environment of the real estate chain has not been fundamentally reversed, and the company has also been affected in part. As the epidemic affected the normal shipment and raw material storage, the inventory increased significantly.
The financial expense ratio decreased significantly, the credit impairment loss decreased and the profit increased: 22q1, the company’s period expense ratio was 19.06%, year-on-year -0.8pct, of which the sales / management / financial expense ratio was 9.94% / 8.60% / 0.53%, year-on-year + 0.01 / – 0.07 / – 0.73pct. Financial expenses decreased significantly, mainly due to the increase of interest income. In addition, the company’s credit impairment loss was 171 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.31%.
With the simultaneous expansion of non real estate, civil construction and various categories, the annual performance can still be expected: over the past 21 years, the company has actively optimized its organizational structure and vigorously expanded its non real estate business; The civil construction group has developed rapidly and has become an important growth pole, which is expected to maintain rapid growth; Relying on the customer resources and channels accumulated in the main waterproof industry, the non waterproof business represented by architectural coatings has expanded smoothly. Overall, we believe that the company is not afraid of the pressure of real estate business, and the certainty of annual performance is still high.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the policy direction of stabilizing real estate is clear. In the future, it is expected to see the inflection point of real estate fundamentals and the leading allocation opportunity of consumer building materials approaching. Based on our confidence in the company’s performance certainty and long-term growth, we slightly raised our 22-year EPS to 2.12 yuan (1.4% higher than the last time), maintained the company’s 23-24 year EPS of 2.54 yuan and 3.05 yuan respectively, and maintained the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the promotion of non real estate business is less than expected, the funds of downstream real estate enterprises are tight, the cash flow is further deteriorated, the price of raw material petrochemical industry chain is rising, etc.
