\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 572 Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) )
Report guide
The company released the first quarter report of 2022: in 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 1.999 billion (+ 13.53%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 114 million (- 2.87%), and a net profit of 106 million (5.01%) deducted. 22q1 bulk fell by 9.3%, but the retail end maintained a good growth, estimated at + 19.5%, slightly higher than expected.
Key investment points
22q1 the whole customization began to work, and the retail end performed well
The company's bulk revenue in 22q1 was 330 million (- 9%) in a single quarter, and it is estimated that retail (including package) was 1.66 billion (+ 19.5%). The retail end performed well, thanks to the implementation of the company's whole customization strategy. December 21 Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) released the whole customization strategy. The unit value of terminal customers increased from 3 Tunghsu Azure Renewable Energy Co.Ltd(000040) 000 yuan to 60000 yuan in C6 plan, moving forward from selling products to selling space. The 39800 yuan package was launched in February 22. When the first half of the 315 period was not affected by the epidemic, the drainage effect was good, and it had a significant pull on the passenger unit price. Looking forward to 22q2, the epidemic situation in April is still severe, but the demand for home decoration is rigid. With the improvement of the epidemic situation from May to June, the demand is expected to release and drive the performance. At the same time, after the arrival of general manager Yang Xin, the executive power of internal management decisions was improved, and the construction of new traffic channels was overweight; The enthusiasm of dealers has been substantially mobilized, and the training of marketing skills & playing methods has been increased, so as to be optimistic about the improvement of inbound passenger flow and conversion rate. 22q1 company has expanded the form of large household stores and integrated and changed dealers, stores and channels. As of March 31, 2022, there are 2571 wardrobe and accessories stores, 994 cabinet stores and 296 wooden door stores (only Huahe).
Q1 full pack and milanna performed well and entered the mass production stage
Packaging channel: 22q1 company's dealer cooperative packaging enterprises superimposed direct signing packaging enterprises achieved an operating revenue of 127 million yuan (21q1: 40 million yuan). Throughout the year, the company set a growth target of 50%, stepped into the track of high-speed development, and became a new growth point of the company.
Milanna: as a young, fashionable and cost-effective brand of the company, there are 277 stores (+ 65 stores) in 22q1, with an operating revenue of 40.68 million yuan (100 million in 21 years). The opening speed of stores will be maintained throughout the year, popularize customization with products, and help the industry accelerate into the whole customization era.
The cash flow increased moderately and the gross profit margin increased steadily year-on-year
1) gross profit margin: 22q1 was 31.32% (+ 0.09pct). The company raised the price of new products in March, which offset the impact of the price rise of some raw materials to a certain extent.
During the period, the investment rate of R & D expenses is 4394% and that of the whole company is 43T + 15t + 10.0%, of which the investment rate of R & D expenses is 431% and that of the whole company is 590%. 21q1 company has a fair value change income of 9.47 million and 22q1 does not, so the final net profit attributable to the parent company 22q1 is 5.73% (-0.97pct).
3) operating cash flow: 22q1 was -283 million (21q1 was -662 million), showing a year-on-year improvement. At the end of the period, the accounts receivable was 1176 million (- 35.52%), the inventory was 731 million (+ 33.52%), and the contract liabilities were 943 million (+ 55.29%), the asset quality was improved, and the performance of retail collection was bright.
Profit forecast and valuation
We are optimistic about the company's business inflection point in Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) 22-23, which will continue to drive the performance better. The retail end relies on the Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) whole customization strategy and Milana light fashion brand, while stabilizing the volume of bulk business and optimizing the customer structure. We expect to achieve revenue of 12.21/14.48/17 billion respectively in 22-24 years, with a same increase of 17.33% / 18.6% / 17.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 1.414/1.686/1.988 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 1054% / + 19.2% / + 17.93%, and the corresponding PE was 12.11x/10.16x/8.61x. After Evergrande's business weakened, it is expected that the company's valuation is expected to be repaired and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: channel expansion failed to meet expectations, and real estate regulation exceeded expectations
