\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 989 Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) )
The EIA process is started again, and the implementation of Inner Mongolia project is expected to be accelerated. Maintain “buy” rating
On September 26, the people’s Government of Inner Mongolia announced that the “substantial environmental impact assessment” of the new coal and hydrogen emission reduction demonstration project of Baofeng banner (Inner Mongolia) is expected to accelerate the implementation of the second phase of the “environmental impact assessment” of the new coal and hydrogen emission reduction project of Baofeng banner. The demonstration project is optimized and adjusted on the basis of the original “4 1 million T / a coal to olefin demonstration project phase I 2.6 million T / a coal to olefin project”. Under the condition of unchanged coal consumption index, through supporting wind and solar hydrogen storage, green hydrogen and green oxygen coupling modern coal chemical industry, methanol production increase and CO2 emission reduction are realized, and the olefin production capacity reaches 3 million T / A. The demonstration project mainly constructs 3 2.2 million T / a methanol unit, 3 1 million T / a methanol to olefin unit, 3 500000 t polypropylene unit, 3 550000 t polyethylene unit and 250000 T / a C4 to 1-butene unit. The demonstration project is expected to become a new profit growth point of the company. We maintain the profit forecast and expect to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 8.05/109.0/18.24 billion from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 13.9% / 35.4% / 67.3%; The current share price is 49.9/1.2 times that of PE, which is 49.9/1.2 times that of PE. The landing of new projects is expected to open up growth space and maintain the “buy” rating.
DMTO third generation technology & close to coal producing area, with obvious cost reduction and efficiency increase
DMTO third-generation technology greatly improves economic benefits: DMTO, the core device of the demonstration project, adopts the third-generation technology of Dalian Institute of physics and chemistry, with a single series project scale of 1 million tons / year, which can realize the conversion of 2.65 tons of pure methanol to 1 ton of olefins. Compared with the olefin project in Ningdong base, the unit consumption of olefin methanol decreased by about 10%, and the corresponding coal consumption decreased by about 0.4 tons. Based on the average price of gasified coal in 2021 of 662 yuan / ton, the olefin cost decreased by 265 yuan / ton. Close to the coal producing area to save freight: at present, the raw coal used for olefins in Ningdong base is mainly purchased from Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) with a transportation distance of about 300km and a freight of about 100 yuan / ton. The demonstration project is located in Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) coal resource enrichment area. The coal freight is expected to be reduced by 80 yuan / ton and the olefin cost is expected to be reduced by 320 yuan / ton. Based on the company’s gross profit of 2733 yuan / ton of olefins in 2021, the gross profit of the demonstration project is expected to reach 3317 yuan / ton after cost reduction and efficiency increase. If the olefin output is calculated at 3 million tons / year, the gross profit of olefin products is expected to reach 9.95 billion yuan and the net profit is 7.17 billion yuan. The growth of the company is very obvious.
Coal chemical industry coupled with green hydrogen, low carbon emission reduction and carbon neutralization
The project adopts the scheme of green hydrogen and green oxygen supplement, with an annual increase of 250 million m3 of green hydrogen, and the maximum amount of green hydrogen supplement in the 10th year is 2.5 billion m3. Under the condition of constant coal consumption, it can increase methanol production by 1.229 million tons / year, reduce CO2 emission by 2.71million tons / year, and reduce 0.7 tons of CO2 per ton of olefin. If the price of carbon emission right is calculated at 200 yuan / ton, the benefit of carbon emission reduction will reduce the cost of olefin by about 145 yuan / ton. At the same time, considering green hydrogen and green oxygen, the energy consumption of the project is 1.83 tons of standard coal / ton of olefin, which is about 23.6% lower than that of Ningdong base, and the corresponding olefin cost is about 135 yuan / ton. The green hydrogen coupled coal chemical industry further increases the efficiency by 840 million yuan / year, and the emission reduction efficiency is obvious.
Risk tips: the risk of falling product prices, the risk of rising raw material prices, and the risk of new projects falling short of expectations
