\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 23 Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) )
Event: on April 27, 2022, the company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company was 2.567 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 269.16%; The operating revenue was 21.288 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.71%. In the first quarter of 2022, the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company was 676 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.07%; The operating revenue was 6.182 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.95%
In 2021, the volume and price of coke increased simultaneously, driving the growth of performance. In 2021, the company’s coke output was 5.62 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.37%, and the sales volume was 5.7512 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.62%. The price per ton of coke was 365615 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 66%, and the unit sales cost of coke was 254252 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 47%. The gross profit margin of coking business was 30.47%, an increase of 9 percentage points over the same period last year.
22q1 cost suppresses profit space and profit growth slows down. According to wind data, in the first quarter of 2022, the price of Taiyuan primary metallurgical coke increased by 19.94% year-on-year to 287667 yuan / ton. During the same period, the average price of Gujiao No. 2 coking coal was 1309 yuan / ton, an increase of 33.33% year-on-year. The price increase of raw coal was higher than that of coke. Affected by the rapid rise of cost, the profit growth of the company slowed down in the first quarter of 2022.
Orders increased and the output of new energy vehicles increased significantly. In 2021, the company produced 601 new energy vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 85.49%. 323 new energy vehicles were sold, which was basically the same as that in 2020. In addition, the company maintained 225 inventory vehicles, mainly to ensure the timely delivery of customer orders in North China market in 2022.
The hydrogen energy business has entered the fast lane of development, and the company has realized the layout of the whole industrial chain. On March 23, 2022, the medium and long term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035) jointly issued by the national development and Reform Commission and the national energy administration clearly proposed to support the development of hydrogen energy industry. By 2025, the number of fuel cell vehicles will be about 50000, a number of hydrogen refueling stations will be deployed and constructed, and the hydrogen production capacity of renewable energy will reach 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 tons / year, which has become an important part of new hydrogen energy consumption, Achieve carbon dioxide emission reduction of 2-1 million tons per year. The company has completed a relatively complete industrial chain layout of hydrogen energy, and built an industrial chain of “hydrogen production storage transportation processing” in the upstream; In the midstream, build the core equipment industry chain from membrane electrode fuel cell stack and system vehicle manufacturing; The downstream makes every effort to promote six regional development strategies, namely, the Great Bay area of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing Tianjin Hebei, the Bohai rim, the energy golden triangle and the central region. The company has explored the innovation ecological chain of “hydrogen energy life cycle” from R & D, production and manufacturing to commercial application.
The cash dividend payment rate is 33%, and the dividend rate is 1.95%. According to the announcement, the company plans to distribute cash dividends of RMB 2.00 (including tax) for every 10 shares, with a total cash dividend of RMB 854 million, accounting for 33.3% of the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021. The dividend rate is estimated to be 1.95% based on the stock price on April 27, 2022.
Investment suggestion: we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 2.156/23.49/2.511 billion, corresponding to 20 / 19 / 17 times of PE on April 27, 2022. Considering that the company has a full layout in the field of fuel cells and basically covers the whole industrial chain, the “recommended” rating is maintained.
Risk tip: the pledge proportion of major shareholders is high, the decline of coke price affects profits, the rise of coking coal price erodes profit space, the construction of hydrogen energy project is less than expected, and the implementation of hydrogen energy industry policy is less than expected
