\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 338 Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) )
Event: Bobby released the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2022q1, the operating revenue reached 310 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.4%, basically in line with expectations. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 01 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 89.5% (mainly due to the fair value loss of RMB 50 million caused by Dongpeng). After deduction, the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 40 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 192.6%.
The impact of the epidemic is small, and the group meal is brilliant. 1) Sub channels: franchise sales / Direct stores / group meal channels / other operating revenues in 2022q1 were RMB 2.3/0.1/0.6/0.1 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 13.2% / + 74.2% / + 60.1% / + 74.4%. Among them, the proportion of franchise in revenue decreased by 6.1pct compared with 2021, and the proportion of group meal business in revenue increased by 4.9pct compared with 2021. Group meal business maintained a high-speed growth trend with high cost performance and organizational efficiency optimization. 2) Sub products: the revenue from food / packaging and auxiliary materials / service fees in Q1 was 280 / 0.2 / 0.1 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 23.0% / + 20.4% / 9.4%, of which the revenue from food pastry / stuffing / purchased food was 130 / 0.7 / 0.8 billion yuan respectively. 3) The revenue ratio of East China / South China is RMB 1.91 billion / 2.0% respectively. At the end of March, the epidemic spread in Shanghai, and the market is expected to have an impact on store sales. In fact, as a material guarantee enterprise for people’s livelihood, the company’s demand for takeout, group meals and other orders has increased significantly, which can effectively hedge the loss of store passenger flow to a certain extent.
The cost dividend continues to release the profit elasticity. The gross profit margin of 2022q1 company was 27.3%, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.7pct, mainly due to the continuous release of low-cost pork dividends. According to the statistics of the Ministry of agriculture, the average wholesale price of pork was – 52.36% year-on-year in 2022q1. On the expense side, the company’s sales expense ratio was 4.4%, with a year-on-year increase of -7.6pct, mainly due to the company’s overweight brand building in the same period last year and increased investment in terminal materials and Internet platforms. The gross sales difference in 2022q1 was 23.0%, with a year-on-year increase of + 12.2pct and a month on month increase of + 0.7pct, and the profit elasticity was continuously released.
Store recovery + consolidated contribution to Q2 elasticity, with high growth in the whole year. Considering the marginal improvement of logistics blocking points in East China in mid and late April, the demand for offline and group meals in home scenes is high, and the boom continues; After the “dynamic clearing”, the passenger flow gradually recovered, and the stores relay the post epidemic repair logic. The “Haolike” and “zaoyidian” brands acquired by the company in 2021 are expected to be consolidated in April to further enhance the elasticity of revenue growth. Considering the improvement of the company’s lunch and dinner categories, the acceleration of store expansion and the acceleration of group meals, it is expected that the high growth boom is expected to continue throughout the year.
Profit forecast: we expect that the revenue in 2022 / 23 / 24 will be RMB 1.735/2.55/2.69 billion, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 270 / 3.2/4 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 15.0% / 19.8% / 25.7%. The current market value corresponds to pe26.5% 6 / 22.2 / 17.7x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials fluctuates, the opening progress is less than expected, and food safety problems
