\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 57 Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) )
In the first quarter, the revenue and profit increased higher than expected. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 809 million yuan (YoY + 59.32%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 146 million yuan (YoY + 85.74%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 124 million yuan (YoY + 61.82%), including non recurring profit and loss of 22 million yuan, mainly the income from entrusted financial management of 22 million yuan. The profitability of the company improved in the first quarter. During the period, the gross profit margin decreased by 0.33pcts to 77.82% and the sales rate increased by 2.10pcts to 48.02%, mainly due to the increase of continuous investment in brand image promotion during the period, the management rate decreased by 0.41pcts to 7.58% and the R & D rate decreased by 0.67pcts to 3.83%, driving the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 2.57pcts to 18.06% and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company increased by 0.24pcts to 15.39%. The net operating cash flow at the end of the period was – 167 million yuan (yoy-429.12%), and the sales collection was normal, mainly due to the increase of procurement expenditure and the phased embodiment of payment cycle; The ending inventory is 487 million yuan (YoY + 5.06%), so as to ensure stable supply during the period.
The product matrix accelerates fission, and the proportion of essence / facial mask continues to increase. The company has accelerated the expansion of its layout on the product side, with the growth of facial mask, essence and other categories, and the proportion of large single products continues to increase. According to our follow-up calculation, Shumin special care and sunscreen series accounted for 60% in total. Special care cream ranked top 1 in tmall face cream for 15 consecutive days in March. Sunscreen / freeze-dried facial mask led to a high increase in categories. The revenue of online channel facial mask and essence series accounted for 15%, and the growth rate of whitening and whitening series, freeze-drying series and red repair series exceeded the average growth rate. The revitalizing and whitening essence inherited the advantages of R & D and increased in large quantities in the second / third year of launch. The barrier repair series became the largest single product in the off-line counter channel over the special care cream. The company is expected to launch more than 100 new products in 2022, which is expected to drive the continuous optimization of the profit model by creating high gross profit essence. In terms of multiple brands, Winona baby is expected to launch the separated skin care concept and upgrade the product line; Aoxmed, a new anti-aging brand, is expected to be launched from medical and American institutions, positioning the price band of 1000 yuan or more. It is expected to build a reputation by cultivating the origin population, gradually increase the volume, and relay to become a new growth pole.
The channel structure is increasingly rich, and the Tiktok /otc channel is performing well. According to our tracking calculation, in the first quarter, the growth rate of online / offline channels was close, of which tmall / private domain platform increased by 50% and JD / Tiktok /otc channels grew faster than the whole. In terms of operation, tmall launched its efforts in multiple channels, reaching a wide range of customers through 38 goddess Festival and other marketing activities, and actively reserving 618 promotion; Tiktok platform has increased the cultivation of self broadcast, realized the differentiation of goods, and the continuous increase of the proportion of self broadcast has led to the increase of channel profit margin; The OTC channel has established an independent business division with more than 20000 outlets. Through the expansion of regional outlets and the improvement of the unit output of old stores, it has achieved a bright growth rate, and the growth rate of Watson and other new retail channels is relatively fast. As the leader of Dermatology skin care, the channel structure of the company is becoming more and more perfect, and the brand strength is expected to accelerate the precipitation. With the gradual control of the epidemic situation, the company is expected to usher in restorative growth.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. As the leader of skin ecological health, the company’s main brand continues to enjoy the high growth of the track, and its self-research and investment multi brand strategy is ready to contribute to the second growth pole. In terms of production capacity and storage, the company is distributed in many places throughout the country. During the epidemic period, the company actively coordinated with other factories and OEM partners to jointly ensure stable production, storage and logistics, highlighting the advantages of anti risk ability. Based on the performance of the first quarterly report, we maintain the company’s revenue forecast of RMB 5.563/74.35/9.775 billion from 2022 to 2024, with an increase of 38.3% / 33.6% / 31.5% respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.208/16.36/2.177 billion, with an increase of 40.0% / 35.4% / 33.1% respectively. The current market value of the company is RMB 83.2 billion, corresponding to 69 times of PE in 2022, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: repeated offline outbreaks; Industry competition intensifies; Product promotion is not as expected; Product quality management risk.
