\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Event: Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) released the annual report of 2021, ESG report and the first quarterly report of 2022. The total revenue of 21 years was 19.971 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42.8%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.314 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 72.6%, the total revenue of 22q1 was 10.53 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 43.6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.71 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 70.0%.
21 years ended successfully, and the pace of Q4 cargo control slowed down. By product, the revenue of Fen Liquor / Series liquor / prepared liquor in 21 years was 17.92/6.4/1.25 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41.90% / 12.73% / 91.39%. It is estimated that the revenue of blue and white series increased significantly. Among them, the growth rate of Qing 20 is faster, and the performance of Fuxing version is relatively stable compared with Qing 20. Bofen has strengthened the control of quantity since the second half of 21 years, and the growth rate is estimated to be controlled. By region, the revenue inside / outside the province in the past 21 years was 8.07/11.74 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 34.6% / 49.5%. On the basis of stabilizing the base market, the company continued to expand the markets of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, and the average growth rate of revenue in the southern market in the past 21 years reached more than 60%. 21q4's revenue was 2.714 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.79%, mainly due to the company's active control of goods and the slowdown of sales rhythm.
22q1 continued high growth under the high base. It is estimated that the Spring Festival peak season from January to February will contribute the main increment, and March will gradually enter the off-season. The company takes the initiative to stabilize the sales rhythm. In terms of products, the revenue of 22q1 Fen Liquor / Series liquor / prepared liquor was 98.73/260347 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44.4% / 118.3% / 7.2%. The revenue growth of Qinghua liquor in Fen Liquor series is still prominent, accounting for an estimated more than 40% of the revenue, and the revenue of qing20 may double. After the past product cultivation, the volume of Q1 has accelerated, Bofen performed stably under the control of volume, and laobaifen and Panama also achieved high growth. In terms of subregions, the income of 22q1 inside / outside the province was 3.854/6.627 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.32% / 52.49%, and the market outside the province continued to expand. By the end of Q1 of the year 22, there were 3617 dealers, a net increase of 93 compared with the end of the year 21.
22q1 net interest rate reached a new high and cash flow performance was strong. 1) The gross profit margin of 22q1 was 74.9% / 74.8%, increased by 2.8/1.2pct year-on-year, the sales expense rate was 15.8% / 11.2%, decreased by 0.45/6.8pct year-on-year, the sales expense of 22q1 decreased by about 11%, the management and R & D rate was 5.96% / 2.63%, decreased by 1.94/0.62pct year-on-year, the net profit margin was 27.0% / 35.4%, increased by 4.7/5.6pct year-on-year, the superposition cost of product structure optimization contracted, and the net profit margin of 22q1 reached a new high. 2) In the 21st year / 22q1, the cash receipts from sales were 25.05/8.87 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 84.3% / 71.9%, which was significantly higher than the increase in revenue. The net cash flow from operating activities was 7.65/3.54 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 280.4% / 1336.0%. The cash flow of 22q1 was strong. In addition to the significant increase in cash receipts, it is estimated that it is also related to the control of cash expenditure such as expenses. By the end of 22q1, contract liabilities and other current liabilities had amounted to 4.385 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.7 billion yuan compared with the end of 21. It is estimated that it is due to the rhythm of low and peak seasons.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: considering product upgrading and the improvement of fee investment efficiency, the profitability continues to strengthen. The net profit forecast for 202223 is increased by 8.08/10.53 billion yuan (7.7% / 9.1% higher than the previous forecast), and the net profit forecast for 24 years is increased by 13.4 billion yuan, equivalent to EPS of 6.62/8.63/10.98 yuan. The corresponding P / E of the current stock price is 41 / 31 / 24 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation is severe, the growth of blue and white series is less than expected, and the expansion outside the province is less than expected.
