\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 599 Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, it realized an operating revenue of 44.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.20%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.804 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.77%, and a net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company of 1.548 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.16%, including about 372 million yuan of government subsidies included in the current non recurring profits and losses; In 2021q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 648 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 62.91%; The company also released the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2022q1, the operating revenue was 15.273 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 79.20%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 543 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 135.97%.
Focus on 210mm large-size photovoltaic modules and sell the performance of the power station. In 2021, the company achieved 24.8gw of PV module shipments, including 16GW of 210mm products; The external sales of photovoltaic modules are 21.08gw, and the products used for their own power station energy system are about 3.7gw. The annual sales revenue of component products was 34.395 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.97%, the unit revenue was about 1.63 yuan / W, and the gross profit margin was 12.43% (the gross profit margin of domestic sales was 14.21%, and the gross profit margin of overseas sales was 11.76%), a year-on-year decrease of 2.47 PCT, mainly due to the rise in the price of upstream silicon materials. In 2021, the company shipped 1.8gw of photovoltaic support products and more than 2gw of distributed systems. The overall system product revenue was 4.564 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14.31% and a gross profit margin of 12.43%; The company obtained the 3.5gW + index of China's power station system, with a year-on-year increase of 200%; The total installed capacity of the power station sold was 818.73mw, increasing the current operating performance by 319 million yuan.
In 2022q1, the price of raw materials remained at a high level. The shipment of the company's component products maintained rapid growth and the shipment structure was further optimized (the proportion of 210mm products continued to increase). However, the profit was affected by stages, and the overall gross profit margin increased by 1.32 PCT year-on-year (down 1.9 PCT month on month) to 13.59%.
The company's component shipment target in 2022 is 43gw, and 8gwtopcon battery will be put into operation in the second half of the year. By the end of 2021, the company's battery capacity has reached 35gw and component capacity has reached 50gw; The company plans to have an annual capacity of 50gw for batteries and 65gw for components by the end of 2022; The target of component shipment in 2022 is 43gw (including self use). In terms of new battery technology, the average efficiency of the experimental batch of the company's n-type TOPCON battery technology mass production line is 24.5%. In April 2022, Suqian 8gwtopcon battery project has been officially launched. It is expected that 2022h2 will be put into operation gradually. At the same time, the company has also made technical reserves in terms of hjt battery.
Maintain the "buy" rating: the sales of large-scale products and distributed businesses of the company have significantly improved. We maintain the profit forecast for 22-23 years and introduce the profit forecast for 24 years. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202224 will be 3.579/45.71/5.596 billion yuan (maintain / maintain / add), corresponding to EPS of 1.65/2.11/2.58 yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE of 22-24 years will be 29 / 23 / 18 times respectively. The high outlook of the photovoltaic industry continues. The company focuses on large-size photovoltaic modules and continues to develop new battery technologies. At the same time, it expands the business categories of photovoltaic systems and distributed power stations, which is expected to obtain excess returns in the whole industry chain and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the deterioration of the competitive environment of large-scale components leads to the profit falling short of expectations; The company's power station development business progress is lower than expected.
