\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 120 Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) )
Performance: Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) announced the performance of the year 2021 and the first quarter of 2022. The company achieved 18.4 billion express pieces in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 30.1%; The operating revenue was 41.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. Quarter by quarter in 2021, Q1-Q4 achieved an operating revenue of RMB 8.33 billion, RMB 9.88 billion, RMB 10.39 billion and RMB 13.13 billion respectively, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 230 million, RMB 220 million, RMB 330 million and RMB 700 million. In 2022q1, the operating revenue reached 11.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 38.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 350 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 52.0%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 400 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 122.4%.
The number of pieces increased steadily and the price continued to rise. Volume: Yunda achieved 18.4 billion yuan of express delivery in 2021, ranking the second in the industry, with a year-on-year increase of 30.1%. The daily average volume exceeded 50 million, accounting for 17.0% of the market; The number of single 2021q4 express shipments was 5.44 billion (year-on-year + 19.7%), accounting for 17.2% of the market. In 2022q1, the express delivery volume reached 4.31 billion tickets (year-on-year + 19.6%), exceeding the industry growth rate by 9.1pp. Affected by the epidemic and the off-season of the industry, the growth rate of parts is temporarily suppressed, but Yunda benefits from the overflow of relevant parts brought by the integration of Jitu Baishi, and the parts still maintain medium and high-speed growth. Price: the ASP of 2021 company’s express delivery business was 2.14 yuan (year-on-year – 4%), with a decrease of 25.9pp compared with 2020. The ASP of 2022q1 company’s express business was 2.53 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15%, and the price easing continued to be verified. Cost side: in 2021, the cost of single ticket express business was 1.97 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%, of which the single ticket cost was 0.01 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 52%, the transit cost was 0.82 yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 6.6%. Affected by the rise of oil price, the single ticket transportation cost was 0.51 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 7.3%, and the single ticket center operation cost was 0.31 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 5.5%.
22q1 gross profit was + 43.5% year-on-year, and the profitability was steadily repaired: the company’s comprehensive gross profit in 2021 was 3.78 billion yuan, up + 19% year-on-year, and the comprehensive gross profit margin was 9.1% (year-on-year – 0.4pp); The gross profit of express business was 3.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 31.0%, the gross profit of single ticket express business was 0.18 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 1%, and the gross profit margin of express business was 8.2%, a year-on-year increase of 0.4pp. In 2021, the annual management expense was 1.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 45.5%, and the management expense rate was 3.5%, a year-on-year increase of 0.5pp. With the increase of expense rate during the period, the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 1.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 5.2%, the net profit attributable to the parent company in a single bill was 0.08 yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 19%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.5%, a year-on-year increase of – 0.7pp. 22q1, the company’s comprehensive gross profit was 1.22 billion yuan, 43.5% year-on-year, 10.5% year-on-year + 0.3pp, and the comprehensive gross profit of single ticket was 0.28 yuan, 16.7% year-on-year.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. The industry competition has changed from price driven to value driven, which leads to the reconstruction of Industry Valuation: the valuation system under the competition of muscle (capital) → the valuation system under the competition of business services. The company switches from quantity priority to profit priority, and the profit repair will be more obvious in the future. Based on the performance of Yunda in 2021 and 22q1, the company’s profit still recovers quarterly. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 / 23 / 24 will be 2.8 billion yuan, 3.5 billion yuan and 4.1 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.97 yuan, 1.21 yuan and 1.41 yuan respectively, and PE of 2022 / 23 / 24 will be 15x, 12x and 10x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: price war intensifies, e-commerce growth declines, and labor costs rise sharply.
