\u3000\u30 China Baoan Group Co.Ltd(000009) 88 Huagong Tech Company Limited(000988) )
Key investment points:
The company is deeply engaged in the field of laser technology, and the restructuring of schools and enterprises has entered a new stage of growth
At present, the company mainly focuses on intelligent manufacturing, optical link and perception business. From 2016 to 2021, the company's revenue CAGR was 25.6%; In March 2021, the company was restructured from school enterprise holding to Wuhan state-owned assets holding and management holding. The core backbone was bound with the interests of the company, optimized decision-making efficiency and entered a new stage of development.
Benefit from the growth of laser manufacturing business penetration and smart manufacturing market share.
Before the restructuring, the company was a school run enterprise of central China University of science and technology, with strong R & D strength. In the past, it was subject to institutional factors, and its market share was only cagr2.5% of annual revenue 4% is 10% of the business in this sector. Benefiting from the increasing penetration rate of laser equipment and the entry of automobile / 3C into photovoltaic / lithium battery and other fields, the above businesses have increased by 38% year-on-year in 21 years, and the gross profit margin has always remained above 30%. It is expected that the compound growth rate will reach 28% from 2022 to 2024.
The continuous deepening of digital economy strategy drives the continuous growth of the company's optical connection and wireless connection business.
Benefiting from the digital economy strategy, it is expected that the scale of China's optical module market will maintain a growth rate of about 20% in the next five years. As an efficient solution for 5g signal indoor coverage, the penetration of wireless small stations will be comprehensively improved in the next three years. The company is a gold medal supplier of Huawei and has a large market share in small base stations. It is expected that the compound growth rate of revenue in the next three years will be 28.76%.
Perception business cuts into the PTC system of new energy vehicles from home appliance temperature sensors, opening up new growth points.
Benefiting from the development of new energy vehicles, the CAGR of the global PTC heating market is expected to be 13.6% in the next five years. PTC heaters and sensors of the company have entered brands such as Byd Company Limited(002594) , SAIC, etc., and are gradually replaced by domestic products. The sensor revenue is expected to achieve a compound growth of 33% in the next three years.
The "buy" rating is given for the first time, and the target price is 22.21 yuan.
It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 136.54/171.01/21.422 billion respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 92611951467 million respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be RMB 0.92/1.19/1.46 respectively. The CAGR will be 28.2% in the next three years. Considering the gradual highlighting of the synergy of various business sectors, the target price will be RMB 22.21, corresponding to 24 times PE in 22 years, and the "buy" rating will be given for the first time.
Risk tip: the promotion of PTC heating is not as expected; 5g promotion is not as expected; Optical module competition intensifies;
