\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 982 Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) )
Event:
Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) released the first quarterly report of 2022: the total operating revenue of the company was 784 million yuan, an increase of 8.0% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 11.693 million yuan, an increase of 42.89% year-on-year.
Key investment points:
The company's performance recovered in the first quarter, and the profitability of ice fresh was improved. During the reporting period, the company achieved a total operating income of 784 million yuan (year-on-year + 8.0%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 11.693 million yuan (year-on-year + 42.89%).
① during the reporting period, the company sold 8.75 million live birds (year-on-year + 4.8%), and the sales revenue was 192 million yuan (year-on-year + 1.5%). The sales volume of the company increased steadily and the production capacity was gradually released; At the same time, the price of Q1 yellow feather chicken increased in 2022, and the company's ice fresh profitability returned to the upward trend. Although after the Spring Festival, affected by the price rise of soybean meal and other raw materials, the increase of breeding costs squeezed the profit space, the overall performance of the company was still improved.
② from the perspective of cost change, the company's R & D cost during the reporting period was 6.023 million yuan (year-on-year + 50.05%), mainly due to the increase of R & D investment in poultry varieties and other projects; The financial cost was 4.4185 million yuan, mainly due to the increase of loan interest expenditure. Meanwhile, the company's credit impairment loss in the first quarter was 1.3898 million yuan, which was caused by the increase of accounts receivable and the supplementary provision for bad debts.
The prosperity of yellow chicken industry will improve in 2022, and it is the general trend that live birds of yellow feather chicken turn to ice. From the perspective of the industry, the price of yellow feather chicken has fluctuated significantly due to the decline of demand in the short term, and the price change trend is different due to the different impact of the epidemic situation. The recent epidemic control will have a significant impact on the consumption of yellow chicken. However, from the perspective of production capacity reduction, the stock of yellow feather chicken ancestors and parents is still in a slight downward trend, the overall industry fundamentals are improving, and the annual price is expected to show a trend of low before high. At present, live poultry trading is still the main sales mode of Yellow Feather Broiler in China. However, due to the impact of emergencies in recent years, it is difficult for live poultry trading to have development space in the future. From the perspective of national policy guidance and the upgrading of consumption level, "live poultry to ice fresh" is the general trend in the future. For the future development of yellow feather broiler, we must get rid of the dependence on the trading mode of live birds. The company carried out the ice fresh layout earlier, and the channel network spread all over the country. With the withdrawal of small and medium-sized production capacity and the further improvement of industry concentration, the company is expected to continue to benefit from the follow-up development.
Profit forecast and investment rating considering that the price of feed raw materials will remain high in 2022 and the breeding cost will put some pressure on the company's performance, we lowered the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to 184 / 289 / 327 million yuan respectively, corresponding to 19.63/12.47/11.03 times of PE. In 2022, the bearing of huangjijing is expected to continue to improve, and the profitability of the ice fresh sector will regain the upward trend. The certainty of profitability growth in the next two years is high, and the "buy" rating will be maintained.
The risk indicates the risk that the company's performance is less than expected; The risk of less than expected penetration of chilled channels; The risk of continuous rise in the cost of feed raw materials; The risk of intensified competition of frozen fresh food; Risks of self-produced products of the company; Other risks that may affect food safety; Risks of the company's purchased products, etc.
