\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 438 Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) )
Core view:
Event: the company announced the results of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 63.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 44%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 127%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 8.49 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 252%. 21q4 achieved a revenue of 16.79 billion yuan, up + 34% year on year and – 17% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 723% and a month on month decrease of – 24%. 22q1 achieved a revenue of 24.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 132% and a month on month increase of + 47%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 513% and a month on month increase of + 130%. In line with market expectations.
Silicon material business contributes a lot to revenue increment. In 2021, the output / sales volume of high-purity crystalline silicon reached 1093 / 107700 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 26.9% / 24.3%. Due to the strong global demand for photovoltaic modules and the serious shortage of silicon production capacity, the price has risen from 84000 yuan / ton at the end of 2020 to 249000 yuan / ton at present. The company fully enjoyed the price increase dividend. In 2021, the sales revenue of high-purity crystalline silicon reached 16.78 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 214%, and the gross profit margin was as high as 71.8%, with a year-on-year increase of + 35PCT. The income of feed and food business and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery components reached 24.59/24.93 billion yuan (before consolidation and offset), with a year-on-year increase of + 17.5% / + 60.9%, but the gross profit margin decreased by 1.2pct/5.7pct to 9.5% / 8.8%. The sales volume of batteries and components increased by 57.6% year-on-year. According to the guidelines, it is expected that the company’s feed business will achieve a revenue growth of more than 10% in 2022, and the production and sales of crystalline silicon / battery will exceed 180000 tons / 40gw.
Fine management creates obvious cost control advantages. The company takes the lead in silicon material production cost (low). The overall gross profit margin of 22q1 company reached 34.11%, with a year-on-year increase of 7.5pct/0.6pct respectively compared with 21q1 / 21q4. During 2021 / 22q1, the expense rate was 10.3% / 5.7%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6pct / decrease of 5.3pct. At present, profitability is at the best level in history. Even though the raw materials increased greatly in 2021 and the transmission to the downstream was not smooth, it is roughly estimated that the unit profit of the company’s battery business can still reach the level of about 1.7 points, which is far from that of comparable companies. 22q1 net interest rate was 21.04%, with a year-on-year / month on month increase of 13.1pct/7.6pct. 22q1roe / deduction of non roe reached 12.7% / 12.55% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of about 10PCT.
The high-profile of silicon material is maintained, and the company expands production and speeds up. The high boom of silicon material industry in 2022 is expected to continue. According to the company’s plan, the silicon material capacity is expected to reach 230000 tons / 350000 tons in 2022 / 2023, an increase of 27.8% / 94.4% over 2021; It will reach 8 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) million tons in 20242026. Meanwhile, the battery capacity will reach 70gw / 102gw in 2022 / 2023, an increase of 55.6% / 126.7% over 2021; 130150gw in 20242026.
The battery business is advancing steadily. At present, the company’s large-scale production capacity of 182 and above accounts for more than 70%. The average non silicon cost of single crystal perc battery has been reduced to less than 0.18 yuan / W. The company added 1gwhjt pilot test line in 2021. At present, the efficiency of hjt R & D and mass production has been greatly improved; 1gwtopcon project has been successfully put into operation, and the product mass production conversion efficiency is leading in the industry.
Investment suggestion: the company’s “fishery + photovoltaic” coordinated development, firmly ranking the leading position of silicon materials and batteries, with high degree of fine management, obvious cost advantage, strong profitability and abundant cash flow. It is estimated that from 2022 to 2023, the operating revenue will be 98.411 billion yuan / 106284 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 16.803 billion yuan / 13.623 billion yuan, the EPS will be 3.73 yuan / 3.03 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 9.8 times / 12.1 times, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Vid-19: the impact of epidemic situation on the industry exceeds the expectation; Risks brought by changes in global industrial policies; The production capacity is lower than expected; Product prices fell more than expected; Industrial chain stability risk; Technical iteration risk; International trade friction risk.
