\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 238 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) )
Core view
The performance in the first quarter was better than the market expectation. In the first quarter, the revenue was 23.268 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.009 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 2.898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 30.2%. In the first quarter, the sales volume of independent brands increased rapidly, especially the sales volume of ai’an increased significantly year-on-year, and the investment income of associates and joint ventures also increased significantly, driving the company’s revenue and profit to achieve high growth.
The gross profit margin increased year-on-year, and the expense rate and cash flow improved year-on-year. The gross profit margin in the first quarter was 6.1%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year. During the first quarter, the expense rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, of which the sales expense rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, the R & D expense rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, and the financial expense rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. The net cash flow from operating activities in the first quarter was -3.203 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 39.0%, mainly due to the increase in cash received from selling goods caused by the growth of sales in the current period.
The sales volume of joint venture brands has increased significantly. In the first quarter, the investment income was 4.227 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, including 4.142 billion yuan for associates and joint ventures, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%. GAC Honda sold 212400 vehicles in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%; GAC Toyota sold 247000 vehicles in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 23.4%. In the first quarter, Honda Binzhi, haoying, Guandao, Toyota Camry, Highlander, Saina and other flagship models continued to sell well, and the sales of new model fenglanda were also good, which promoted the sales of joint venture brands to achieve a significant increase in the first quarter. In 2022, the joint venture brand will also launch new pure electric models such as bz4x and E: NP1, and its competitiveness in the field of pure electric is expected to continue to improve.
The sales volume of independent brands increased steadily, and the sales volume of ai’an maintained a high growth rate. GAC sold 90400 vehicles in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%. The new ga6 was officially launched in February. In the future, it will also launch new models such as shadow leopard HEV, GAC motor emkoo and GAC motor’s new generation M8, which is expected to drive the continuous improvement of its own brand. Gac-e’an sold 44900 vehicles in the first quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 154.9%. In the first quarter, e’an launched aionlxplus, aionsplus and other new models, and aionyplus will be launched during the year. The new products are expected to enhance the comprehensive competitiveness of e’an and help its sales maintain high growth. According to the company’s announcement, the phase II capacity expansion of the plant has been completed in February, and the capacity has been increased to 200000 vehicles / year. The construction of the second plant is expected to be completed in December. At that time, the capacity of the plant will be further increased to 400000 vehicles / year, laying a capacity foundation for the continuous growth of the sales volume of the plant.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
It is predicted that the company’s EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.88 yuan, 1.07 yuan and 1.26 yuan respectively. Based on the 22-year PE valuation and referring to the valuation of comparable companies, the company will be given 18 times PE in 2022, the target price will be 15.84 yuan, and the buy rating will be maintained.
Risk tips
The sales volume of GAC passenger cars, Guangfeng, guangben and guangfeike is lower than the expected risk, and the demand of the passenger car industry is lower than the expected risk.
