\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 24 Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) )
Event: on the evening of April 26, 2022, the company released its 2021 annual report and 2022 quarterly report.
Key investment points
Benefiting from the high prosperity of the downstream photovoltaic industry, the company’s performance increased steadily in 2021: the company achieved a revenue of 5.047 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 24.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 717 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 37.2%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 661 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 40.32%. In terms of products, the income of process equipment was 4.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.6%, accounting for 83.2%; Automation supporting equipment was 680 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 44.7%; Accessories amounted to 160 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.8%, accounting for 3.3%. From 2020 to 2021, the cell industry experienced the expansion of large-scale production instead of small-scale production, and the existing capacity was replaced by new equipment. As one of the leading enterprises of photovoltaic perc cell equipment, the company’s performance continued to benefit, and its revenue and net profit maintained stable growth. According to our conclusion from the statistical caliber of various equipment manufacturers and industrial chain links, perc expanded its production by about 70gw + in 2021. In 2022, due to the narrowing of the profit space of perc battery chips and the introduction of new technologies, the market space of perc equipment began to decline. It is preliminarily judged that there is still about 30GW of expansion in the first half of 22 years, and new technologies (hjt, TOPCON, XBC) may begin to dominate in the second half of 22 years. Q4 in a single quarter, the company achieved a revenue of 1.302 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 35.61% and a month on month increase of + 16.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 118 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 62.69% and a month on month increase of – 16.77%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 101 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 70.1% and a month on month decrease of – 25.2%. In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 1.363 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.77% and a month on month increase of + 4.65%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 273 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 29.26% and a month on month increase of + 131.67%; The net profit of non parent company was RMB 14.16 billion, with a year-on-year ratio of RMB 4.46 billion and a non parent company ratio of RMB 4.4 billion.
The company has excellent cost control ability and steadily improved its net profit margin: in 2021, the company’s annual sales gross profit margin was 24.6%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.8pct. In terms of products, the gross profit margin of process equipment was 26.2%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.4pct, and the gross profit margin of automation equipment was 9.4%, with a year-on-year increase of -12.5pct, which dragged down the overall gross profit rate; The net sales interest rate was 14.1%, year-on-year + 1.5pct, which mainly benefited from the decline of the period expense rate. In 2021, the period expense rate of the company was 8.0%, year-on-year -2.14pct, of which the sales expense rate was 1.41%, year-on-year -0.59pct; The management expense ratio (including R & D) was 6.72%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.13pct; The financial expense ratio was -0.13%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.42pct. In the single quarter of 2021q4, the gross profit margin of the company’s sales was 21.4%, year-on-year -3.02pct and month on month -3.61pct; The net profit margin on sales was 8.8%, year-on-year + 1.75pct, month on month -4.1pct. In 2022q1, the gross profit margin of the company’s sales was 27.1%, with a year-on-year increase of – 1.8pct and a month on month increase of + 5.7pct, mainly benefiting from the increase in the proportion of the company’s core product wet equipment; The net profit margin of sales was 20%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.2pct and a month on month increase of + 11.2pct. During the period, the expense rate was 6.7%, year-on-year -1.2pct, of which the sales expense rate was 1.4%, year-on-year + 0.2pct, and the management expense rate (including R & D) was 6.1%, year-on-year -0.1pct; The financial expense ratio was – 0.9%, with a year-on-year increase of – 1.3pct.
As of the end of the year, the company’s short-term cash flow was + 1.35 billion yuan, with guaranteed cash flow of + 1.3 billion yuan as of the end of the year; The inventory was 4.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6%. Benefiting from the rapid development of photovoltaic downstream & continuous iteration of cell technology, the company’s contract liabilities and inventory have maintained growth. By the end of 2022q1, the company’s contractual liabilities were 3.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 10%; The inventory was 4.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 8%. The company’s payment collection is in good condition. In 2021, the operating net cash flow was 1.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 304.3%; In 2022q1, the company’s net operating cash flow was 340 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.6%.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the impact of the epidemic on order acceptance, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 9.00 (down 8%) / 10.66 (down 8%) / 1.228 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE of the current stock price is 22 / 19 / 16 times respectively, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: new product development is less than expected, and downstream process iteration is less than expected.
