\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 24 Shenzhen Crastal Technology Co.Ltd(300824) )
The company disclosed the first quarterly report of 2022:
22q1: the income is 180 million yuan (YoY + 4%), 16 million yuan (yoy-42%) belongs to the parent, and 17 million yuan (yoy-35%) is deducted. Profit performance was lower than expected.
Revenue side: OEM fell, and the proportion of independent brands increased
By independent brand / OEM:
① independent brands: Q1 revenue is 150 million (YoY + 16%), and the growth rate is expected to be good from January to February. It has dropped in March due to the impact of the epidemic on logistics. At the same time, the epidemic also forms a certain pressure on offline channels.
By Region: China 130 million (YoY + 11%), overseas 17 million (YoY + 76%).
Category: electrical appliances 100 million (YoY + 7%), non electrical appliances 46 million (YoY + 40%).
② OEM: Q1 revenue is 36 million (yoy-24%).
Among the company’s own brands, China’s electrical appliances are relatively damaged, and non electrical appliances continue to increase; Overseas autonomy benefits from low base growth. OEM fell as overseas demand began to fall.
Profit side: Q1 net interest rate fell
Gross profit margin: 48.3% (YoY + 0.5pct, mom -1.7pct). The core logic of increasing gross profit margin is to increase the proportion of independent brands, but in addition to structural factors, it is expected that the cost of raw materials will still be strongly suppressed. We expect that the continuous rise of raw material Q1 will bring about 2-4pct level pressure on the company’s gross profit margin.
Net interest rate: 9.0% (YoY -7.4pct, mom -4.1pct). In addition to raw materials, the expected pressure comes from:
① marketing launch. Regardless of the impact of changes in income structure such as OEM, the available rate is 33% (+ 3PCT) based on sales expenses / private brand income, and the launch continues to increase;
② the rate of management and R & D is 15% (+ 4pct). The company continues to expand the project R & D team and maintain high investment.
③ the investment income was – 04 million year-on-year, mainly due to the damage of Q1 stock assets; In addition, other income was + 03 million year-on-year.
Investment suggestion: buy rating
The company’s short-term profit is still not superimposed due to the continuous reduction of raw material costs in Q1. In the follow-up, we still need to pay attention to the inflection point of the company’s profitability. After adjusting the profit forecast, it is estimated that the profit of 22-23 years will be 120 million and 170 million (the previous value is 140 million and 180 million), yoy + 12% and + 42%, corresponding to pe35 and 25X. Maintain buy rating.
Risk tips
The promotion of innovation was less than expected, the industry boom was less than expected, the pressure on raw materials / shipping / exchange rate increased, and the growth of original categories slowed down
