\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 120 Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) )
Event: the company released the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022. The company achieved an operating revenue of 41.7 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. The company plans to pay a cash dividend (before tax) of 0.052 yuan / share. The company’s operating revenue in the first quarter of 22 years was about 11.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 350 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 52.0%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was about 400 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 122%.
Express orders maintained a high growth rate, and the market share increased steadily. In 2021, the number of express orders of the company was about 18.4 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 30.1%, 0.2pct faster than that of the whole country. In 2021, the company’s express business volume accounted for 17.0% of the business volume of national express service enterprises, an increase of 0.02pct over the same period of last year. In the first quarter of 2022, the express delivery volume of the company was about 4.31 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, exceeding the national express order volume by 9.2pct, accounting for 17.8% of the National Express business volume, an increase of 1.36pct compared with the same period of the previous year.
The single ticket income stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating income returned to positive growth. In 2021, the company’s express business revenue was about 39.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.5%, and the growth rate changed from negative to positive compared with the same period of the previous year; The revenue of full caliber single ticket was about 2.14 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 4.3%, which was significantly lower than the decrease of 29.8% in the same period of last year. In the first quarter of 2022, the company’s express product revenue was about 10.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.6%; The single ticket revenue was about 2.53 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.0%, and the growth rate changed from negative to positive compared with the same period of last year, with a month on month increase of 10.0% in the fourth quarter of 2021.
The single ticket cost continued to decline and the gross profit margin rebounded. The company’s single ticket cost of express service in 2021 was about 1.97 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%. Under comparable standards, it showed a downward trend for seven consecutive years, in which the single ticket transportation cost and single ticket transshipment cost decreased by 7.5% and 5.7% respectively year-on-year, mainly because the company continued to improve the average loading rate of bilateral vehicles in the whole network through fine management; In addition, in 2021, the processing capacity of automation equipment in the transfer center increased by 13.2% year-on-year, and the comprehensive operation efficiency increased by 35.2% year-on-year, improving the transfer efficiency. In terms of comprehensive income cost, the company’s single ticket gross profit in 2021 was about 0.18 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.72%; In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company’s express service was 8.19%, an increase of 0.41 percentage points year-on-year.
Deeply implement the strategy of “product stratification” and cultivate the second growth curve. While consolidating the basic sector of standard express, the company gives full play to the service quality advantages and whole process timeliness advantages of head enterprises, vigorously develops Yunda express and value-added service market and customers, improves the company’s core competitiveness and cultivates the second growth curve.
Investment suggestions: the price war in the express industry eased periodically, and the profitability of the company rebounded; The company deeply implements the “product stratification” strategy. Under the background of the overall development of the industry to the premium service competition pattern, the company is expected to continue to maintain its competitive advantage and obtain greater brand advantage, product advantage and development space. Based on the continuous improvement of the company’s fundamentals, we raised the company’s 22-23 year net profit forecast by 29% / 40% to 2.11 billion yuan and 2.81 billion yuan respectively, and increased the 24-year net profit forecast by 3.51 billion yuan; Maintain the company’s “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: macroeconomic fluctuation risk leads to the decline of express demand; Industry competition exceeded expectations, resulting in the decline of single ticket income; The implementation of administrative supervision is lower than market expectations.
