\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 30 Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the operating revenue was 1.509 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.94%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 417 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.25%, and the non net profit deducted was 406 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.69%; In the first quarter of 2022, the operating revenue was 368 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.58%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 162 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.44%, and the non net profit deducted was 149 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.53%.
Q1 maintains rapid growth, and overseas injections are expected to continue in large quantities. The company's performance in 2021 is basically consistent with the previous express, and the performance of 22q1 is close to the upper limit of the previous forecast (25% - 35%). The company's revenue continues to grow steadily. We expect that it will be mainly driven by the rapid growth of the revenue of antibiotics, antiallergic drugs and gastrointestinal drugs, with the revenue growth rate of 93.12%, 33.78% and 29.91% respectively. The share based incentive expense and the interest paid by the lower end accounted for 20.86 billion yuan (+ 19.073% of the share based incentive expense in 2020, accounting for 10.823 billion yuan + 19.99% of the growth rate of the share based incentive expense in 2020 (+ 19.073% of the share based incentive expense), and the interest paid by the lower end accounted for 10.823 billion yuan (+ 19.072% of the share based incentive expense in 2020), Accounting for 0.72% (+ 0.19pp) of income. The company's overseas injection products are constantly enriched, and the production capacity bottleneck is expected to be gradually lifted. The continuous volume is worth looking forward to.
Quarter by quarter: the revenue of 2021q4 is 372 million yuan (- 8.45%), the net profit attributable to the parent company is 26.43 million yuan (- 78.42%), and the non net profit is 21.08 million yuan (- 81.48%); In 2022q1, the revenue was 368 million yuan (+ 34.58%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 162 million yuan (+ 33.44%), and the non net profit deducted was 149 million yuan (+ 25.53%).
Sub products: the income of antibiotics was 447 million yuan (+ 93.12%), the gross profit margin was 73.42% (+ 13.00pp), and the income increased rapidly; The revenue of antiallergic drugs was 294 million yuan (+ 33.78%), and the gross profit margin was 85.54% (+ 0.58pp). The decline in the price of core variety desloratadine after centralized collection affected the revenue and gross profit margin; The revenue of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular drugs is 266 million yuan (- 21.41%), and the gross profit margin is 87.40% (- 2.73pp). We expect it to be mainly affected by the decline of product price and the rise of cost; The revenue of non steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs was 119 million yuan (+ 3.09%), mainly driven by the sales of diclofenac sodium enteric coated sustained-release capsules; The income of gastrointestinal drugs was 155 million yuan (+ 29.91%), and the gross profit margin was 70.21% (- 6.57pp).
The gross profit rate declined slightly, and the three expense rates remained stable. The comprehensive gross profit margins of 2021 and 2022q1 companies were 71.58% (- 3.18pp) and 79.50% (- 1.78pp) respectively, and the gross profit rate decreased slightly, mainly due to the increase of raw material costs and manufacturing expenses; The three expense rates were 23.85% (+ 2.91pp) and 21.29% (+ 2.71pp) respectively, which remained basically stable. The financial expense rates were 2.96% (+ 1.89pp) and 4.87% (+ 4.50pp) respectively, mainly due to the increase of interest expenses.
The bottleneck of production capacity was broken, and the growth outside China was driven by the preparation pipeline. So far, the injection workshop of Hainan Company has passed the annual report of FDA in 2020, and the bottleneck of injection business has been lifted successively. The company has rich technical reserves and experience in preparation technology research and global registration. At present, the company has obtained 146 product approvals, including 57 domestic chemical drug approvals, 64 overseas preparation production approvals, 17 API approval numbers and 3 pharmaceutical excipients production approval numbers. The rich products are expected to drive the sustained and rapid growth of business abroad. In China, the approval of new products, the sales of intensively purchased varieties, the expansion of indications and the upgrading of original products will drive the continuous growth of Chinese business; In foreign countries, the active bidding of approved varieties, new market development, listing of new varieties and CMO business will also drive the continuous growth of foreign business.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: according to the latest announcement data, considering the steady growth of the company's performance driven by the gradual and large-scale production capacity, as well as the impact of raw material prices and expenses, we adjust the profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.890, 2.321 and 2.803 billion yuan (2.389, 3.390 billion yuan before the adjustment in 2022 and 2023), with a year-on-year increase of 25.25%, 22.82% and 20.77%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 519 million yuan, 670 million yuan and 849 million yuan (750 million yuan and 1.020 billion yuan before the adjustment in 2022 and 2023), with a year-on-year increase of 24.63%, 28.95% and 26.87%. The current share price corresponds to 20 / 16 / 12 times of PE from 2021 to 2023. Considering that the company is a rare injection export enterprise in China, it is currently in the rapid growth stage of rapid product approval and double line force in overseas China. It is worth looking forward to sustained and rapid growth in the future, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk prompt event: drug price reduction risk; The risk that the approved products from outside China fail to meet the expectations; External policy uncertainty risk; There is a risk that the public information is delayed or not updated in time.
