\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 898 China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) )
Event: on April 27, 2022, the company released the first quarter report, saying that the operating revenue in the first quarter was 61.730 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.793 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 93.1%; The basic earnings per share was 0.51 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 88.9%.
The output of self-produced coal increased, and the capacity under construction of 5.64 million T / a equity contributed to growth. In the first quarter of 2022, the company’s self-produced coal output increased by 1.77 million tons to 30.49 million tons; The sales volume of commercial coal decreased by 9.3% year-on-year to 69.57 million tons, of which the sales volume of self-produced coal was 30.81 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, and the sales volume of buyout trade coal was 37.2 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.3%. The dahaize coal mine has been successfully commissioned in 2021 and will contribute to the performance increment in 2022; In addition, the company still has three pairs of coal mines under construction, of which Yilan No. 3 coal mine has an approved production capacity of 2.4 million tons / year (equity production capacity of 2.4 million tons / year), Weizigou coal mine has an approved production capacity of 2.4 million tons / year (equity production capacity of 1.2 million tons / year), and Libi coal mine has an approved production capacity of 4 million tons / year (equity production capacity of 2.04 million tons / year).
The price of coal rose sharply, and the gross profit and investment income of coal business increased significantly. In the first quarter of 2022, the price of self-produced thermal coal was 615 yuan / ton, up 34.3% year-on-year; The sales price of self-produced coking coal was 1681 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 82.9%; The sales price of buyout trade coal was 839 yuan / ton, up 58.0% year-on-year. In terms of gross profit margin, the gross profit margin of self-produced coal increased significantly, reaching 57.0% in 2022q1, with a year-on-year increase of 12.6pct; The gross profit margin of trade coal is basically stable, with 0.76% in 2022q1. In addition, the company’s participation in coal mine coal prices increased simultaneously and thickened its performance. In 2022q1, the company’s investment income was 1.265 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.8%.
The prices of urea and methanol increased significantly, and the gross profit margin of polyolefin was under pressure. In the coal chemical industry sector, in 2022q1, the company completed the output of main coal chemical products of 1.351 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 14.8%. The increase mainly came from the operation of the technical transformation project of methanol from syngas to 1 million tons / year, so that the methanol output in the first quarter was 505000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 263000 tons; In addition, the output of polyethylene, polypropylene and urea decreased slightly. In terms of price, the price of the company’s main coal chemical products is at a high level, among which the sales price of polyethylene is 7878 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%; The sales price of polypropylene fell slightly to 7528 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%; The price of urea was 2596 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 34.7%; The price of methanol was 1858 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%. In terms of gross profit, the gross profit of main coal chemical products of 2022q1 company was 931 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%, mainly due to the significant decline in the gross profit margin of polyolefins and methanol. The gross profit margin of polyethylene in 2022q1 was 14.9%, down 4.8pct year-on-year; The gross profit margin of polypropylene was 12.8%, down 10.7pct year-on-year; The gross profit margin of urea was 34.0%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5pct; The gross profit margin of methanol was 5.7%, down 14.9pct year-on-year.
Investment suggestion: the company’s capacity under construction is put into operation one after another, and the self-produced coal is expected to continue to increase in volume. At the same time, under the background of the increase of Changxie coal benchmark price and the sharp rise of coking coal price, the company’s comprehensive coal price center moves upward with strong certainty. In the future, the company is expected to increase both volume and price, with large growth space. We expect that from 2022 to 2024, the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 25.0422795831.046 billion, corresponding to EPS of RMB 1.89/2.11/2.34/share respectively, and PE corresponding to the closing price on April 27, 2022 of 5 / 4 / 4 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the price of coal and coal chemical products has fallen sharply; The progress of coal mine production is less than expected; Provision for large impairment.
