\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 92 Hangzhou Onechance Tech Corp(300792) )
Core view
The performance in 2021 was under pressure from multiple factors, and 22q1 recovered. In the 21st year, the revenue reached 1.135 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 12.59%, which was mainly affected by the adjustment of the cooperation mode with the flagship store of Baique; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 327 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 5.39%, and the deduction of non net profit was - 8.75% year-on-year; This is mainly due to the pressure on the consumption environment and the slowing down of platform growth in the second half of last year, and the superposition of its own increase in talent reserve from 21q3, resulting in a significant increase in relevant costs and the continuous investment in digital system construction. Quarterly, 22q1 achieved a revenue of 266 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 19.58%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 52 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 2.38%. The profit side is mainly affected by the repeated epidemic and the above-mentioned increase in cost investment.
Revenue splitting: the asset light mode continued to transform, and the proportion of overseas business increased. Sub model: in recent years, the company has continued to transform to the asset light model. In 21 years, the brand online management service achieved a revenue of 603 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.61%, accounting for 53.09% (a year-on-year increase of + 12.95 PCT); Brand online marketing services achieved a revenue of 226 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 46.15%, accounting for 19.94% of the revenue; Sub platform: under the decentralization of traffic and the company's own active development of new platforms, tmall's revenue in 21 years was 209 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 47.09%, accounting for 16.07% (a year-on-year increase of - 14.30pct); Vipshop's revenue was 147 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 44.93%, accounting for 11.32%; By Region: in 21 years, the domestic revenue reached 930 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 22.17%, accounting for 81.89%; Overseas revenue was 206 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 97.20%, accounting for 18.11%.
Profitable operation: profitability is temporarily under pressure. The gross profit margin in 21 years was 48%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.22pct; The sales rate of 21 years was 7.53%, with a year-on-year increase of -3.66pct, mainly due to the decrease of - 44.55% in promotion expenses; The rate of administrative expenses was 7.20%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.32 PCT; Mainly due to the fact that Q3 of the company in the 21st year is the reserve of personnel for new brand business in the next year and the strengthening of organizational capacity-building; The R & D rate was 2.15%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.06pct; The gross profit margin and net profit margin of 22q1 were 44.13% / 20.86%, down from 21q4, mainly due to the increase in marketing brought by the investment in new brands and the increase in expenses brought by the corresponding staff talent reserve. The number of inventory turnover days in 21 years was + 28 days to 81 days year-on-year, which was mainly due to the impact of the epidemic and business growth; The net operating cash flow in 21 years was 28 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 93.73%, mainly due to the continuous growth of management service business and the adjustment of accounting period of some customers.
Risk tip: the running in period of the new brand is long, and the performance of the newly signed brand is less than expected.
Investment suggestion: considering the impact of repeated epidemics and the increase in costs and expenses caused by the company's newly signed brands in the early stage of investment, and the pressure on the income side and expense side in the short term, we lowered the profit forecast. It is estimated that the revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.5/19/2.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 33.6% / 25.4% / 18.8%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 4.36/5.47 and 560 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 33.3% / 25.7% / 20.0%; Diluted EPS = 1.82/2.29/2.75 yuan, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 15 / 12 / 10x. With the completion of the company's full platform and full category, it will further strengthen the global service capacity and full link brand service capacity. In the short term, the performance is under pressure affected by the epidemic. It is expected to usher in business repair opportunities in the medium and long term and maintain the "overweight" rating.
