\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 225 Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) )
Event: on April 27, 2022, the company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. The net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company in 2021 was 21.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.26%; The operating revenue was 152266 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.17%; The basic earnings per share was 2.18 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.48%. In the first quarter of 2022, the net profit was 5.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.79%, and the net profit after deducting non recurring profits and losses was 7.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 97.59%.
In 2021, the volume and price rise together, and the performance increases greatly. According to the announcement, the company’s raw coal output was 136 million tons in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 8.39%; The coal sales volume was 231 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.56%. The company’s coal price was 601.59 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 238.14 yuan / ton, an increase of 65.52%. The unit full cost of the original coal preparation was 294.79 yuan / ton, an increase of 88.72 yuan / ton year-on-year, an increase of 39.50%, of which the maintenance and repair cost increased by 5.26 yuan / ton, an increase of 46.47%; Relevant taxes and fees increased by 29.97 yuan / ton, an increase of 84.64%; Materials increased by 15.34 yuan / ton, an increase of 92.19%. In 2021, the gross profit margin of coal business was 37.05%, with a year-on-year increase of 12.78 percentage points.
The cash dividend payment rate is 61.91% and the dividend rate is 8.5%. According to the announcement, the company plans to distribute cash dividends of RMB 13.50 (including tax) to the shareholders of the company for every 10 shares, totaling RMB 13.088 billion, accounting for 61.91% of the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the company in the current year. Based on the stock price on April 27, 2022, the dividend rate is 8.5%, which is at a high level and has a high investment value.
In the first quarter, the output decreased slightly and the price increased significantly. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved raw coal output of 343553 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, and sold 548711 million tons of coal, a year-on-year decrease of 24.83%, of which the sales volume of self-produced coal was 33.591 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.73%. The decline in sales volume was mainly due to trading coal, mainly because Shaanxi Shaanxi coal supply chain management Co., Ltd. was no longer included in the consolidation scope of Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) statements due to the capital increase and actual control of Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) Chemical Group Co., Ltd. Although the production and sales of the company declined, the price rose significantly year-on-year. According to wind data, the average price of Shaanxi Huangling q5000 thermal coal in 2022q1 was 825.45 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 54.16%. The coal price increased greatly, which promoted the release of the company’s performance.
The proportion of long-term cooperation is low, and the price rise cycle drives the release of performance flexibility. The proportion of Changxie coal is relatively low, and the sales are mainly land sales. It is expected to obtain higher profit elasticity in the upward cycle of coal price. We expect that the price center will remain high in 2022, and the company’s performance elasticity is expected to continue to release.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 31.878 billion yuan, 32.658 billion yuan and 33.345 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 3.29/3.37/3.44 yuan / share respectively, and PE corresponding to the closing price on April 27, 2022 will be 5 times, 5 times and 5 times respectively, with low valuation in the industry. Maintain a “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the coal price has fallen sharply, the improvement of downstream demand margin is less than expected, and the cost has increased more than expected
