\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 651 Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co.Ltd(002651) )
Events
Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co.Ltd(002651) released the annual report of 2021 and the report of the first quarter of 2022: the annual operating revenue in 2021 was 959 million yuan, up 17.10% year-on-year; The gross profit was 404 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.44%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 200 million yuan, up 4.29% year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2022, the operating revenue was 252 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.17%; The gross profit was 106 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.87%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 71 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.54%.
Comments
Revenue and profit growth and gross profit margin in 2021 are lower than our expectations
In 2021, the annual operating revenue was 959 million yuan, up 17.10% year-on-year; The gross profit was 404 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.44%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 200 million yuan, up 4.29% year-on-year. The comprehensive gross profit margin was 42.10% in the whole year, a decrease of 1.02 percentage points compared with the whole year of 2020 and an increase of 3.38 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter of 2021. The company’s operating revenue and net profit in 2021 were lower than our expectations, mainly because the sales revenue and gross profit margin of roller press business in the building materials industry were lower than our expectations. At the same time, affected by the epidemic, the market revenue of roller press accessories, rollers and other accessories and after maintenance was lower than our expectations. The reason why the company’s roller press business in the building materials industry is significantly lower than our expectations is mainly due to the low price competition strategy of competitors. The company has high requirements for gross profit margin and payment collection conditions, and has voluntarily abandoned many orders. However, the expansion of the company’s roller press business in the mining industry has achieved remarkable results, the revenue has doubled, and it is expected to continue the high growth trend in 22 years.
The growth rate of the company’s revenue and profit in the first quarter of 2022 exceeded our expectations, but the force in the second quarter was restricted by the epidemic control measures
In the first quarter of 2022, the operating revenue was 252 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.17%; The gross profit was 106 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.87%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 71 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.54%. The comprehensive gross profit margin was 42.06%, a decrease of 7.94 percentage points compared with the first quarter of 2021, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points compared with the whole year of 2021, and an increase of 3.34 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter of 2021. The company’s revenue and profit growth in the first quarter exceeded our expectations. The gross profit margin of the company in the first quarter of 22 years decreased by 7.94 percentage points compared with that in 21 years. We believe that it is mainly due to the less revenue settlement of Aerospace Military Industry in the first quarter of 22 years. Under the current situation of less settlement of aerospace military industry business with high net interest rate, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by about 10% year-on-year, indicating that the recovery of roller press business of the company exceeded our expectations. It is estimated that the recovery of roller press in building materials industry exceeded our expectations. Considering the gradual settlement of the company’s aerospace and military business income, the company’s gross profit margin is expected to continue to increase.
Profit forecast
The company’s annual performance in 2021 was far lower than our prediction, but the performance in the first quarter of 22 exceeded our expectation. However, the national epidemic control had a great impact in the second quarter. Whether the second quarter can continue the trend of the first quarter needs to be observed. According to the company’s 2021 annual report and the data of the first quarter of 22, we carefully consider adjusting the corresponding prediction model. We expect that the company will realize operating revenue of RMB 1.267 billion, 1.623 billion and 2.091 billion from 2022 to 2024, net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 266 million, 342 million and 441 million, total share capital of 1.033 billion shares, corresponding to eps0.01 billion 27, 0.35 and 0.45 yuan. On April 26, 2022, the share price was RMB 569, corresponding to the market value of RMB 5.9 billion. From 2022 to 2024, PE was about 22, 17 and 13 times.
The company’s roller press and related equipment business has obvious competitive advantages, benefiting from the capacity replacement and equipment transformation and upgrading of the mining industry. After equipment service, the market has strong profitability and large growth space. The aerospace parts and tooling design and manufacturing business is the main driving force for future growth. We maintain the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the macro economy is lower than expected, the industry competition intensifies, and the growth of gas business is lower than expected.
