\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 653 Haisco Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002653) )
Key investment points
Event: Haisco Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002653) released the annual report for 2021, and the operating revenue was 2.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.71%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 345 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.8%; The non net profit deducted by the parent company was 352051 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 75.91%. Among them, the company's operating revenue in the fourth quarter was 862 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.68%, a month on month increase of 35.74%, deducting non net profit of 50 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 191.48%;.
Comments: according to the verification of the inflection point in the fourth quarter, the continuous and large-scale production of cyclophenol: the decline of the company's main business income is mainly affected by the national medical insurance price reduction, centralized procurement and other factors. We believe that the impact has basically subsided. With the large-scale production of innovative drug products, the company's fundamentals will continue to improve. By product:
1) dorasetron mesylate injection was greatly affected by the negotiated price reduction in China. Tumor antiemetic products decreased by 85.6% to 146 million yuan from 1.018 billion in 2020, which had a great impact on the income. The market share of products began to rise from Q3 and Q4, and the sales recovered;
2) other varieties have maintained stable or rapid growth, among which cardiovascular products have increased from 4 million to 41.05 million, and parenteral nutrition income has increased by about 89 million;
3) the volume of anesthetic products is fast. As a self-developed class 1 intravenous anesthetic, cyclophenol was approved to market in December 2020. During the reporting period, it was newly approved as "general anesthesia induction" and "sedation in bronchoscopy". The sales of anesthetic products are 2021h17570000 yuan, with an annual sales of Jiangsu General Science Technology Co.Ltd(601500) 00 yuan. The trend of accelerating the volume is obvious. It entered the national medical insurance through negotiation in 21 years. We expect to continue to accelerate the volume in 22 years;
The sales expense decreased and the expense rate remained basically stable: in 2021, the company's sales expense was 976 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23%, and the sales expense rate was 35.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9pct; The management fee was 352 million yuan, an increase of 11% year-on-year, and the management fee rate was 12.7%, an increase of 3.2pct year-on-year; The R & D expenditure was 434 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and the R & D expenditure rate was 15.7%, an increase of 3.5pct over the same period last year; The company's overall gross profit margin was 66%, down 2.1pct from the same period last year.
Continuous investment in R & D and innovative varieties drive a new round of growth: the company has eight class 1 innovative drug products entering the clinical stage, of which 1) cyclophenol has been approved as "sedation and anesthesia in non endotracheal intubation surgery / operation" and "induction and maintenance of general anesthesia", and the indications "sedation during intensive care" and "sedation and anesthesia in gynecological outpatient surgery" have been applied for NDA in December 2021 and January 2022 respectively, which is expected to be approved this year, The phase III clinical enrollment of general anesthesia induction indications in the United States is progressing smoothly. 2) Analgesic and antipruritic drugs (hsk21542), neuralgia drugs (hsk16149) and long-acting hypoglycemic drugs (hsk7653) are all in phase III; Among them, 7653 is expected to complete phase III and apply by the end of the year, 21542 is expected to complete phase III test, and 3-4 innovative drug applications ind are planned to be completed this year; In terms of internationalization, the company carried out two phase III trials of cyclophenol anesthesia induction (IGA) in the United States, and hsk29116 has obtained the ind approval from FDA in April 2022.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: the company is affected by the price reduction of medical insurance, the progress of innovative drugs is smooth, the volume of cyclophenol is rapid, and the sales expectation of innovative drug pipeline is raised. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.47 billion yuan (3.47 billion yuan before adjustment), 4.53 billion yuan (4.1 billion yuan before adjustment) and 5.55 billion yuan respectively; Year on year growth of 25%, 30.4% and 22.6% respectively;. The performance inflection point was determined and raised to the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the risk of drug research and development, the risk that the market capacity is less than expected, the risk of drug price reduction, etc.
