\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Zhenye(Group)Co.Ltd(000006) 72 Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) )
The net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years increased by 7.4% year-on-year, with a slight decline in 22q1
Recently, the company released its annual report for 21 years. In the 21 years, the company achieved revenue / net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 8.31/2.18 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 29.3% / + 7.4%, and realized deduction of net profit not attributable to parent company of RMB 2.1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 13.3%. Among them, Q4 achieved revenue / net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 2.62/590 billion in a single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of + 32.4% / + 14.7%; The company also announced the first quarterly report of 22 years. In 22q1, the revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.49/340 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21.8% / - 3.8%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 310 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of - 9.3%.
Cement sales increased significantly in 21 years and remained resilient in 22 years
The company's cement and clinker revenue in 21 years was 7.21 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 32%. The overall sales volume was 20.81 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 22.5%, of which the cement / clinker increased by 32.6% and 1.0% respectively. We estimate that the comprehensive average price per ton of cement and clinker is 346 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25 yuan, the cost per ton is 204 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35 yuan, and finally the gross profit per ton is 142 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10 yuan. The cement clinker sales volume of 22q1 company was 3.465 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of only 6%, which was lower than the national average. Through the acquisition of Songta cement in Inner Mongolia in the past 21 years, the company's clinker production capacity has increased by 2500t / d. at present, there are cement production capacity projects under construction in Du'an, Guangxi, Duyun, Guizhou, Zhuji, Zhejiang and Kyrgyzstan abroad. Among them, the Guangxi Du'an project is planned to be put into production in 2022, and the production capacity is expected to increase by 5000t / D. in the future, the annual clinker production capacity is planned to exceed 25 million tons, and the cement production capacity exceeds 35 million tons. The main cement industry still has great development space.
The profit contribution of aggregate / environmental protection increases gradually, and the effect of "two wings" layout becomes more and more obvious
In 21 years, the company realized aggregate revenue of 669 million, with a year-on-year increase of 17%, of which the sales volume increased by 3.3% year-on-year. We calculated that the gross profit per ton was 40 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.8 yuan, and 22q1 sold 2.191 million tons of aggregate, with a year-on-year increase. The company accelerated the expansion of aggregate business, with the medium-term aggregate production capacity target of more than 30 million tons and the aggregate gross profit margin of 80% in 21 years, which is expected to improve the overall profitability. In the environmental protection sector, the actual collection and transportation of various types of hazardous waste sludge, municipal solid waste and general solid waste in 21 years totaled about 314900 tons, and the actual disposal of 135500 tons, realizing a new environmental protection business revenue of 131 million yuan and a net profit contribution of 14.205 million yuan. In the future, the company will continue to accelerate the production efficiency of existing projects and accelerate the construction of other cement kiln collaborative production line projects. The annual hazardous waste disposal capacity is planned to exceed 1 million tons, The proportion of profits may increase gradually.
The development of "one main and two wings" can be expected to maintain the "buy" rating.
In the context of the decline in cement demand, the company's sales volume still achieved rapid growth, which is reflected in growth. From the perspective of future production capacity objectives, the main cement industry still has great development space. At the same time, the profit contribution of aggregate and environmental protection business is expected to gradually increase. Moreover, the company actively participated in the equity investment of new economic industry, and the development of "one main and two wings" is expected. Considering the large decline in demand, we adjusted the forecast of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company for 22-23 years to RMB 2.54/2.79 billion (the previous value was RMB 2.93/3.32 billion), and added a forecast of RMB 3.05 billion for the net profit attributable to the parent company for 24 years. Referring to the valuation of comparable companies and considering the growth of the company, we gave the company 8 times the target PE for 22 years, corresponding to the target price of RMB 24.96 (the previous value was RMB 21.63), maintaining the "buy" rating.
The rise of coal price in peak season is less than expected, and the rise of cement cost is less than expected.
