\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 012 Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) )
Event: the company achieved an operating revenue of 80.932 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 48.27%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.086 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.24%. In 2021q4, the operating revenue was 24.726 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.16% and a month on month increase of 17.15%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.32% and a month on month decrease of 40.31%. 2021q4 was mainly affected by asset impairment of 898 million (166 battery production line impairment of 500 million + and inventory impairment of 200 million +). In 2022q1, the operating revenue reached 18.595 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.29% and a month on month decrease of 24.80%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.664 billion yuan, an increase of 6.46% year-on-year and 74.13% month on month. The investment income of 2022q1 silicon material is 660 million yuan, but the impact of demurrage fee is 200 million yuan.
High increase in silicon wafer shipment and strong profitability: in 2021, the company's silicon wafer shipment was 70.01gw, an increase of 20.5% at the same time, including 33.92gw for external sales, 36.09gw for self use, 51% for self supply, 27.55% for gross profit margin and a decrease of 2.8pct at the same time. However, due to the significant improvement of the price system, we calculated that the annual net profit per Watt was about 0.13 yuan / W, slightly higher than that in 2020. The shipment of silicon wafer in 2022q1 is 18.36gw, with a ring increase of 14.8%, including 8.42gw for external sales, 9.9gw for self use and a gross profit margin of 23.2%. It is estimated that the net profit per watt is 0.12 yuan / W. recently, the price of silicon wafer has continued to rise, and we expect 2022q2 to maintain high profitability. In 2022, we expect the company to ship 90-100gw of monocrystalline silicon wafers, an increase of 28.5 ~ 42.9% at the same time, and the production capacity will reach 150gw at the end of the year, an increase of 42.9% at the same time.
Components ranked first in a row, and distributed channels expanded: in 2021, the company shipped 38.5gw of components, with an increase of 57%, of which external sales were 37.2gw, with an increase of 55.5%, accounting for about 20% of the global market, ranking first in the world for two consecutive years, with a gross profit margin of 17.06% and a decrease of 3.47pct. The gross profit of the company is estimated to be about 40.092% with the depreciation of 2W components in the U.S., and the gross profit margin of the company will be about 40.092% with the depreciation of 2W components in the U.S. year-on-year, which will be significantly lower than that in the U.S. year, and the gross profit margin of the company will be about 40.092% with the depreciation of 2W components in the U.S. year. In 2021, the company's distributed sales accounted for about one third, which is relatively low. We expect that the company will expand the distributed channel and put into production 30GW high-efficiency batteries for the distributed market, which will fully enhance the company's competitiveness in the distributed component market. In 2022, we expect the company to ship 50-60gw of components, an increase of 29.9 ~ 55.8% and the production capacity of 85gw, an increase of 41.7%.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Based on the fact that the price of silicon material continues to exceed the market expectation, we lowered the profit forecast for 2022 / 23. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 13.526176.35/22.136 billion yuan (the previous value was 14.217/19.039 billion yuan in 2022 / 23), a year-on-year increase of + 49% / + 30% / + 26%. We gave 35xpe in 2022 with a target price of 87.5 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: intensified competition, photovoltaic policy, expected changes in supermarket market, etc.
