\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 838 Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) )
Earnings highlights: 1. The momentum of revenue growth continued, and the net profit continued to increase by nearly 30%. Affected by the year-on-year slowdown of net non interest income, the growth rate of revenue and PPOP in 2021 narrowed slightly, but still maintained a high growth of more than 20%; In the first quarter of 22, the growth momentum continued, the revenue increased by 17.6% year-on-year, and the expense expenditure widened year-on-year, while the growth rate of PPOP narrowed to 14.9%. Under the background of excellent asset quality, the provision provision has slowed down slightly, and the net profit has continued to maintain a high level of nearly 30% year-on-year, with a year-on-year increase of 29.95% and 28.9% in 2021 and the first quarter of 22 respectively. 2. In the first quarter, deposits and loans were booming, and loans continued to grow by 7.9 percentage points. Loans increased by 30.6 billion in the first quarter, which was basically the same as that in the same period last year. Corporate loans made a good start in the first quarter, and retail credit grew steadily on the basis of moderate growth in the fourth quarter, with a chain of + 10.2% and 1.1% respectively, accounting for 38.0% and 11.8% of interest bearing assets respectively, and the proportion of total loans rose to a historical high of 49.8%. Deposits made a good start, with a beautiful growth rate. The new scale in a single quarter reached 56.3 billion, an increase of 10 billion over the same period in 21 years, an increase of 10.6% month on month, and the proportion of interest bearing liabilities increased to 77% month on month. 3. The income in financial management maintained strong growth. Although the growth rate of intermediate income slowed down slightly, it still maintained a strong growth level on the whole. In 2021 and 1q22, it increased by 45.9% and 28.4% respectively year-on-year, of which the income of financial management business in the 21st year increased by 71% year-on-year. 4. Better quality, higher safety margin. Non performing: the non-performing rate in the first quarter decreased continuously by 8 and 7bp to 0.91% month on month. 1q22 concerned loans accounted for only 0.45%, and the proportion of concerned + non-performing loans decreased to 1.36%, which was the best level in history. Overdue: in 2021, the overdue rate was 0.96%, and loans overdue for more than 90 days accounted for 0.80%, which was generally improved compared with half a year. Provision: in the first quarter, the provision coverage ratio increased from + 33.03% to 435.84% month on month, and the provision loan ratio stabilized at a high of 3.95%.
Insufficient financial report: the interest margin is more sensitive to asset side fluctuations. 1q22 narrowed month on month due to repricing, dragging down the net interest income by – 3.2% month on month. The interest rate spread decreased to 19q.1%. The asset side yield was affected by repricing in the first quarter, with a month on month decline of 20bp. It is expected that the first quarter is mainly affected by loan repricing. The debt side interest payment rate 4q has a slight downward trend, while 1q is a positive contribution to the interest margin. In the future, the reduction of the deposit pricing ceiling can further slow down the cost of corporate liabilities, and the interest margin is expected to remain stable.
Investment suggestion: high performance, clear asset quality and high cost performance. Company 2022e, 2023epb1 07X/0.91X； PE5. 66x / 4.80x (City Commercial Bank pb0.72x / 0.64x; pe5.99x / 5.27x), the company benefited from the strategic planning of Chengdu Chongqing dual city economic circle, integrated into the local economic construction and development, actively supported the construction of local key infrastructure, continued to increase the deposit and loan business, deepened and implemented the corporate business, and continuously improved various indicators of asset quality to a better level in history. It is recommended to keep an active track.
Adjustment of profit forecast: according to the annual report & the first quarterly report, we adjust the profit forecast. The operating value is expected to be RMB 249.12 billion before 202912 billion; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.147/11.957 billion yuan (the previous value was 8.294/9.546 billion yuan).
Risk tip: the economic downturn exceeded expectations and the company’s operation was less than expected.
