\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 225 Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) )
Event: on April 27, 2022, the company issued the annual report of 2021. During the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of 152266 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.17%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 21.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.26%; The cash flow from operating activities was 51.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141.75%. The basic earnings per share was 2.18 yuan / share, a year-on-year increase of 42.48%.
In the first quarter of 2022, the operating revenue reached 39.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.79%; The net profit after deducting non-profit was 7.334 billion yuan, up 97.59% year-on-year; The cash flow from operating activities was 6.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.63%; The basic earnings per share was 0.59 yuan / share, a year-on-year increase of 68.79%.
Comments:
In 2021, the volume and price of self produced coal rose together, driving the performance to increase significantly; In 2022, the price of Q1 increased by 57.7% year-on-year, and the advantages of high calorie, low sulfur and high-quality thermal coal are obvious.
In 2021, the company achieved a coal output of 136 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.39%; The sales volume of self-produced coal reached 134 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 10.41 million tons, an increase of 8.41%. The price of self-produced coal rose by 58.3% year-on-year in the third quarter of last year. The cost per ton of self-produced coal was 220.2 yuan / ton, up 36.3% year-on-year, mainly due to the sharp rise in the prices of raw materials, fuels and power. The gross profit per ton of coal reached 363.4 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 177.5 yuan / ton. Superimposed on the statement of Shaanxi coal supply chain company, the sales volume of trade coal decreased by 21.44 million tons year-on-year, and the gross profit margin of the company’s coal business reached 37%, an increase of 9.8 PCT year-on-year. The company’s annual coal business revenue was 144528 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.03%.
In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved coal output of 343553 million tons and coal sales of 548711 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% and 24.83%. The decrease in sales is mainly due to the decrease in the volume of trade coal, but due to the low gross profit of trade coal, it has little impact on the overall performance. In the first quarter, the sales price of coal was 634 yuan / ton, an increase of 57.7% year-on-year. High prices led to a significant increase in performance, with an operating revenue of 39.57 billion yuan in the first quarter, up 13.5% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.79%. Looking forward to this year’s production, the company’s coal output is expected to be the same as that in 2021; In terms of price, we expect that this year’s coal market will continue to maintain a tight supply and demand situation under the background of insufficient supply elasticity and superimposed import restrictions in China, and the coal price is expected to run at a high level. The company’s coal has the characteristics of low sulfur, low ash and high calorie, with an average calorific value of 57006200 kcal. High quality coal resources will also form a strong support for the price and boost the continuous growth of the company’s operating performance.
The profit and loss from changes in fair value fluctuated, contributing a profit of 1.352 billion in 2021 and a loss of 2.184 billion in the first quarter.
On April 30, 2021, the board of directors passed the proposal on foreign cooperation in investment business and authorization, and agreed that the company would cooperate with foreign countries to carry out investment business not involving related party transactions within the limited amount of the company’s own funds of no more than 20 billion yuan and in accordance with the investment decision-making process. By the end of 2021, the scale of trading financial assets held by the company was 12.288 billion yuan, and the profit and loss from changes in fair value was 1.352 billion yuan, thickening the company’s profit. The company’s main investment direction in the secondary market is the field of new energy and new materials. In the first quarter of 2022, affected by stock price fluctuations, the income from changes in fair price was -2.184 billion yuan. After deducting the impact of income tax, the impact of non recurring profits and losses on profits was -1.64 billion yuan. The company will not continue to increase investment in the secondary market in the future. As the company plans to include the investment income of Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) in the fluctuation of fair value in the second quarter, it is expected to bring considerable one-time performance contribution to the company.
The company paid high dividends under high cash flow, and the proportion of cash dividends increased to 61.91%, significantly exceeding the dividend commitment, and increased efforts to give back to investors Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) “announcement on shareholder return planning for the next three years (20202022)” stipulates that “the profit distributed in cash every year shall not be less than 40% of the distributable profit realized in that year, and the amount shall not be less than 4 billion yuan”. In 2021, the company plans to pay dividends of 13.088 billion yuan, with a cash dividend ratio of 61.91%. According to the closing price on April 27, 2022, the current dividend rate is 8.5%. The company has sufficient cash flow. In 2021, the cash flow from operating activities was 51.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141.75%, while the capital expenditure plan in 2022 was 4.148 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%. Abundant cash flow is expected to bring sustained high dividends. Since the listing of the company, the dividend proportion has increased gradually. It is expected to maintain the current dividend proportion at least in 2022, making the investment attractive.
Profit forecast and investment rating: raise the company’s profit forecast and maintain the buy rating. As the epidemic situation in China remains stable, the demand for electricity in coastal areas picks up, and the demand for coal downstream is expected to increase, supporting the maintenance of medium and high coal prices. Considering the gradual release of the company’s production capacity such as xiaobaodang No. 2, which is expected to reach production this year and bring a certain output increment, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) ‘s profitability is expected to continue to improve. We raised the company’s profit forecast. It is expected to realize the parent company’s profit of 25.649 billion yuan, 30.05 billion yuan and 34.063 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with EPS of 2.65/3.09/3.51 (the original 20222023 forecast value is 2.57/3.03, and the new 2024 forecast value). According to the current dividend ratio (60%), the dividend rate from 2022 to 2024 under the current stock price is 10%, 11.7% and 13.28%, maintaining the “buy” rating of the company
Risk factors: first, there is a serious decline in the macro economy, second, the coal price fluctuates greatly, and third, there is uncertainty in the industrial policy.
