\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
With high-quality development under the optimization of product structure, the growth potential of national layout is sufficient, and the “buy” rating is maintained
The company’s revenue in 2021 was 19.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 42.8%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 72.6%. Q1 revenue in 2022 was 10.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 43.62%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 70.0%. We maintain the profit forecast for 20222023 and add the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit of the company in 20222024 will be 7.94 billion yuan, 10.72 billion yuan and 14.04 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 6.51 yuan, 8.79 yuan and 11.51 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponding to PE is 41.3, 30.6 and 23.4 times respectively. The company is a scarce target with both certainty and growth in the industry and maintains the “buy” rating.
“Raising the bottom of end control” runs through 2021, and each series has achieved high-quality growth
In 2021, the revenue of Fen Liquor was 17.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 41.9%, of which the sales volume was + 28.5% year-on-year, the price per ton of liquor was + 10.4% year-on-year, and the volume and price rose simultaneously, reflecting the acceleration of nationalization and structural optimization; In 2021, the revenue of series liquor was 640 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.7%, the sales volume was – 23.8% and the price per ton of liquor was + 47.9% year-on-year, reflecting the simple low-end SKU of series alcohol and realizing high-quality development; In 2021, the revenue of prepared liquor was 1.25 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 91.4%, a year-on-year increase of + 60.0% in sales volume and a year-on-year increase of + 19.6% in ton price. The prepared liquor was made nationwide and achieved brilliant results.
The proportion outside the province has further increased, and the momentum of nationalization has not decreased
In 2021, the provincial revenue was 8.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 34.6%, accounting for 40.7%; The income outside the province was 11.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 49.5%, accounting for + 2.6pct to 59.3%. In 2022q1, the provincial revenue was 3.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 31.4%, accounting for 36.8%; The income outside the province was 6.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 52.4%, accounting for + 3.5pct to 63.2%. While the market share outside the province continued to increase, the province also achieved rapid growth through the upgrading of benefit structure and the improvement of market order.
The improvement of product structure and scale effect have led to an obvious and continuous improvement trend of profitability
In 2021, the structure of various series of products of the company was significantly improved, with gross profit margin of + 2.76 PCT to 74.91%, while the period expense rate of – 2.08 PCT to 21.61%, mainly due to the flat sales expense rate and the sharp decline of management expense rate, with net profit margin of + 4.72 PCT to 26.99%; In 2022q1, the gross profit margin is + 1.21pct to 74.75%, the net profit margin is + 5.60pct to 35.40%, and the sales expense rate is – 6.80pct to 11.15%. There is a benign interaction between marketing and revenue growth, and the company has entered the stage of brand potential energy harvest. With the increase in the proportion of high-end products, the net interest rate still has room to improve compared with 2021.
Risk tip: macroeconomic fluctuations lead to a decline in demand, and the expansion outside the province is less than expected
