\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 120 Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) )
The results of the fourth quarter of 21 and the first quarter of 22 achieved high growth. In 2021, the annual revenue was 41.73 billion yuan (+ 24.6%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 1.4 billion yuan (+ 15.9%); In the fourth quarter of 2001, the single quarter revenue was 13.13 billion yuan (+ 26.1%), deducting 700 million yuan (+ 96%) of net profit not attributable to the parent company; In the first quarter of 2022, the single quarter revenue was 11.55 billion yuan (+ 38.7%), deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 400 million yuan (+ 122%). In the context of epidemic prevention and control in the first quarter, the company's performance was stable.
The business volume of the company maintained a rapid growth trend, the price was stable, and the impact of the epidemic was generally controllable. The company's business volume in the fourth quarter and the first quarter achieved rapid growth of 20% and 31% respectively. Among them, in the middle and late March, Shenzhen, Shanghai and other cities successively implemented sealing and control management due to the epidemic, resulting in the decline of the operating efficiency of express enterprises, resulting in a slight damage to the average daily business volume. Therefore, it can be seen that the growth rate of the company's business volume in March decreased to 5%, and the overall impact is controllable. The market share of the company in the first quarter increased by about 1.4 percentage points year-on-year to 17.8%. Since the second quarter of 2021, the regulatory authorities have standardized the irrational competition in the express industry, and the price war has continued to ease. Especially after entering the peak season of the fourth quarter, Tongda and other leading express companies have formed a price alliance, raised the express unit price synchronously, and the price remained stable in the first quarter, In the fourth quarter and the first quarter, the company's single ticket express price increased by 1.9% and 14.9% year-on-year respectively (among which the change of statistical caliber of rookie wrapping business in the first quarter had a slight impact on the unit price).
The company's single ticket profit in the fourth quarter and the first quarter improved significantly year-on-year, and the peak of capital expenditure has passed. The company's net profit of single ticket express delivery in the fourth quarter and the first quarter was about 0.13 yuan and 0.09 yuan respectively, significantly improved year-on-year (about 0.08 yuan and 0.05 yuan in 20q4 and 21q1 respectively). Among them, the month on month increase in net profit of single ticket express delivery in the fourth quarter was mainly due to the easing of competition and the rise in prices in peak seasons; In the first quarter, the net profit of single ticket express delivery decreased month on month, mainly because the month on month decline of business volume in the first quarter will lead to the thickening of fixed cost amortization, the month on month rise of oil price and the rise of epidemic prevention cost. The company's capital expenditure in the fourth quarter and the first quarter was 2.75 billion yuan and 1.37 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of + 34% and + 7.5% respectively. 2021 is the year of the company's capital expenditure (annual capital expenditure of 8.2 billion yuan). The proportion of self built sorting and transfer centers has increased significantly, and it is expected that the capital expenditure will decrease significantly in the next two years. In addition, the losses from changes in fair value and credit impairment in the first quarter were caused by short-term factors and were not sustainable.
Risk tips: changes of epidemic situation in China; Deterioration of price competition; The demand growth of e-commerce express delivery was lower than expected.
Investment suggestion: raise the profit forecast and maintain the "buy" rating.
As the price performance in the first quarter slightly exceeded the expectation, we raised the company's profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.37/3.20/3.89 billion yuan respectively (the adjustment range from 22 to 23 years + 18.5% / + 15.2%), with a year-on-year increase of 60% / 35% / 22% respectively. Considering the controllable impact of the epidemic on the company and maintaining the "buy" rating of the company, the PE valuation of EPS corresponding to the current share price in 22-23 years is 18x and 13X respectively.
