\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 371 Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) )
The prosperity of the semiconductor industry continued, and the company’s performance continued to increase. Benefiting from the continuation of the prosperity of the semiconductor industry, the company’s performance continued to grow rapidly in 2021 and the first quarter of 2022. In 21q4, the company achieved a revenue of 3.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 58.1%, a record high in a single quarter. Among them, in 2021, the revenue of electronic process equipment was 7.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 63.2%, and the revenue of Seven Star Huachuang was 7.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 71.4%, indicating that the strong growth of semiconductor equipment has become the main driving force of performance; The revenue of electronic components was 1.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 47.2%.
Semiconductor equipment is the main driving force, and the profitability continues to improve
In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was 39.4%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.72 PCT; 2022q1 gross profit margin 44.6%, year-on-year + 5.12pct. In 2021, the gross profit margin of electronic process equipment was 33%, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.56pct; The gross profit margin of electronic components was 68.9%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.75pct. Driven by demand, the company’s scale effect is gradually reflected, the product structure is changing towards high gross profit semiconductor equipment, the company’s profitability continues to improve, and the profit margin and profit growth continue to exceed the revenue growth.
Capital expenditure goes up, and equipment localization is the general trend
The global semiconductor market has a strong growth momentum in 2021, and the growth trend is expected to continue in 2022. At present, the prosperity of the semiconductor industry continues to rise, and the chip supply shortage continues to drive the chip manufacturers to repair the capital expenditure plan, promote the expansion of production and enhance production capacity. IC insight predicts that the capital expenditure of the semiconductor industry will continue to grow by 24% in 2022. Semi predicts that the total global semiconductor manufacturing equipment market will expand to US $107 billion in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 18%, and the demand for equipment will continue to rise. According to Frost & Sullivan, the CAGR of China’s integrated circuit market from 2015 to 2019 is 20%, and it is expected that the market will break trillion in 2022, while China’s IC self-sufficiency rate will only be 15.9% in 2020, which poses major hidden dangers to the development of China’s semiconductor industry and the security of information industry. The US sanctions and squeeze events further stimulate the crisis awareness of Chinese manufacturers, and the importance of self-control has been highlighted. Benefiting from the continuous promotion of China’s wafer factory expansion plan, the verification of domestic new machines is expected to be actively promoted, and the localization of equipment is imperative.
Continue to promote the platform layout and increase the capacity layout of fixed size
The company has a rich product system. Etching machine, PVD, CVD, oxidation / diffusion furnace, annealing furnace, cleaning machine and other products have achieved mass production applications in the field of integrated circuits and pan semiconductors, forming a product platform with multiple varieties and cross fields of semiconductor equipment. The company will increase by 8.5 billion yuan in 2021, and plans to expand the output of 500 / 500 / 300 / 700 sets of integrated circuit equipment, emerging semiconductor equipment, LED equipment and photovoltaic equipment. From January to February 2022, the company’s new orders exceeded 3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of more than 60%. The company has a complete product line, the number of customer verification is increasing, and the process penetration rate continues to improve. Benefiting from the promotion of the expansion of Chinese wafer factories, it is expected to accelerate the import substitution.
Profit forecast
It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 14.2 billion yuan, 19.2 billion yuan and 24.5 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.64 billion yuan, 2.24 billion yuan and 2.77 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding dynamic PE of the current stock price is 78, 57 and 46 times respectively. For the first coverage, give a “recommended” rating.
Risk tips
Semiconductor market demand is less than expected; The downstream wafer manufacturing capacity expansion is less than the expected risk; Risk of parts shortage; New equipment R & D progress is less than expected risk, etc
