Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) ( Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) ) the company released the 2021 annual report and the 2022 quarterly report. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 19.97 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42.8%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.31 billion, a year-on-year increase of 72.6%; In the single quarter of 2021q4, the company achieved a revenue of 2.71 billion, a year-on-year increase of - 24.9%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 440 million, a year-on-year increase of - 29.6%; In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 10.53 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 43.6%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.71 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 70.0%, which was consistent with the previous forecast.
2021 ended successfully, Q1 made a good start and maintained a high growth trend outside the province. 2021q4 company took the initiative to control goods and store energy during the peak Spring Festival season, and Q1 made a good start as scheduled. According to the market, the revenue in 2021 / outside the province was 8.07/11.74 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 34.6% / 49.5% respectively, the revenue in 2022q1 / outside the province was 3.85/6.63 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 31.3% / 52.5% respectively, and the market share outside 2021 / 2022q1 increased by 2.6/3.5pct to 59.3% / 63.2% respectively. The channel expansion outside the province was also carried out simultaneously, In 2021, the number of distributors inside / outside the province of the company was 728 / 2796, an increase of 83 / 5452022q1 respectively, with a total increase of 93 distributors. It is expected that the number of distributors outside the province will still be dominated. In the "1357 + 10" market layout, the average growth of sales in the southern market will reach more than 60% in 2021. At the same time, the revenue of the e-commerce platform of Q1 company increased by 73.2% at the same time, which shows that the brand awareness of consumers of Fenjiu has been continuously improved under the brand rejuvenation and nationalization strategy.
The product structure was continuously optimized, and the cash flow and contract liabilities performed well. In 2021, Fen Liquor / Series liquor / prepared liquor achieved a revenue of 17.92/6.4/1.25 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 41.9% / + 12.7% / 91.4% respectively, and a ton price of + 10.4% / 47.9% / 19.6% respectively. The product structure continued to be optimized. Among them, the gross profit margin of Fen Liquor increased from + 3.1pct to 76.6% year-on-year, driving the overall sales gross profit margin of the company from + 2.8pct to 74.9% year-on-year in 2021, and the sales gross profit margin of 2022q1 increased from + 1.2pct to 74.8% year-on-year; In terms of cash flow, the net cash flow from sales / operation in 2022q1 was RMB 8.87 billion / 3.54 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 71.9% / 1336.0% respectively; In terms of contract liabilities, the contract liabilities in 2021 / 2022q1 were 7.38 billion yuan and 3.88 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 137.4% / 32.4% respectively. The contract liabilities in Q1 fell compared with the end of the year, but remained high and higher than the level in the first three quarters of last year.
The profit elasticity is prominent under the scale effect. Under the product strategy of "grasping blue and white, strengthening waist and stabilizing glass Fen", the company's gross profit margin continued to increase. At the same time, on the cost side, the company's sales / management / financial expense ratio in 2021 was 15.8% / 5.8% / - 0.2%, year-on-year - 0.5 / - 1.9 / + 0.3pct, and the sales expense was + 38.8% year-on-year, of which the advertising expense was 2.03 billion yuan, year-on-year + 58.9%. The company adhered to the investment in product publicity and accelerated brand rejuvenation; 22q1 is the sales / management / financial expense ratio, which is 11.2% / 2.6% / - 0.1%, year-on-year - 6.8 / - 0.6 / + 0.1pct, and the sales expense is - 10.7% year-on-year. It is expected to be related to the high base and the cost of epidemic impact. In 2021 / 2022q1, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 26.6% / 35.2% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.6/5.5pct respectively, highlighting the flexibility of performance.
The growth can be expected, and Fen Liquor will be revived. The company plans to increase its revenue by about 25% year-on-year in 2022. The goal is relatively conservative. At present, the revival of Fenjiu is on the way, the momentum of Qinghua Fenjiu at the product end is booming, Bofen has won consumers' reputation for its quality, and the channel feedback is that the company's product demand is strong under the quota system; On the market side, under the market layout of "1357 + 10", the southern market represented by the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River delta still has large development space, and continues to be optimistic about the future development of Fenjiu. Profit forecast: after maintaining the previous profit forecast and introducing 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 28.69/35.54/42.07 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 43.7% / 23.9% / 18.4% respectively, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 8.01/105.0/13.05 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 50.7% / 31.1% / 24.3% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to the P / E ratio of 41 / 31 / 25X from 2021 to 2023, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the market expansion outside the province is less than expected, and the promotion of high-end products is less than expected
