\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 276 Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released the report for the first quarter of 2022. In the first quarter of 2022, it realized an operating revenue of 140 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 20 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 68.8%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 20 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 69%; The net cash flow from operating activities was – 80 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%.
Covid-19 epidemic affected varicella vaccine sales, and increased R & D expenditure led to a decline in profitability. The decline in performance in 2022q1 is mainly due to the impact of the national epidemic on the sales of varicella vaccine, which has a great impact on the delivery logistics end and the vaccination end of the CDC. According to our channel research data, the sales volume of varicella vaccine is expected to be about 1-1.1 million. Looking forward to the whole year, on the premise of the gradual weakening of the impact of the epidemic, the company will actively adjust its sales strategy. We expect the sales of varicella vaccine and nasal spray influenza vaccine of the company to rebound in the second half of the year. In terms of profitability, the gross profit margin of the company in 2022q1 was 89.2% (+ 0.88pp), which remained basically stable. The main reason is that the sales expense increases by 20% (+ 2PP + 8pp), and the main business income decreases by 20%. The R & D expense rate was 20% (+ 13.2pp), which was mainly due to the increase of R & D expense for clinical research of intracellular adsorbed acellular DPT (three component) combined vaccine and nasal spray live attenuated influenza vaccine (liquid preparation) and preclinical research of all human anti tetanus toxin monoclonal antibody. The financial expense rate was – 3.3% (- 3PP), mainly due to the increase of interest income. Based on the above factors, the net interest rate of the company in 2022q1 is 12.6% (- 9.9pp), and the profitability has decreased greatly. It is expected that the traditional seedlings of the company will resume growth in 2022, and the profitability is expected to return to the normal level.
The pipeline under research is ready to go, and the herpes zoster vaccine is expected to be on the market in 23 years. At present, the company’s heavy innovative live attenuated herpes zoster vaccine has received the acceptance notice of CDE listing license application. The product is expected to be listed at the end of 2022 or the beginning of 2023, contributing to the increase of performance. The company’s product has obvious advantages, the applicable age may be advanced to 40 years old, and the vaccination procedure is planned to adopt one injection method, and the price is expected to be lower than that of GSK vaccine (3200 yuan / person), It is conducive to penetrate the elderly with high price sensitivity. Among other pipelines, the rabies vaccine is expected to be put on the market at the end of 22. The whole human anti rabies virus monoclonal antibody and freeze-dried rabies vaccine (MRC-5 cells) are in the stage of preclinical research.
There are abundant varieties under research, which is expected to contribute to the increment of long-term performance. Relying on the four major technical platforms of virus large-scale culture technology platform, preparation and adjuvant technology platform, genetic engineering technology platform and bacterial vaccine technology platform, the company has many varieties of vaccines under research, including more than 10 kinds of herpes zoster vaccine, freeze-dried human rabies (MRC-5 cell) vaccine, influenza virus cleavage vaccine and respiratory syncytial virus RSV recombinant protein vaccine, which lays a foundation for the long-term development of the company.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the company’s EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.04 yuan, 1.82 yuan and 2.4 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 36, 21 and 16 times respectively. Considering that covid-19 vaccination in China has been basically completed, the impact on traditional vaccines in 22 years is expected to be marginal weakened. At the same time, the company’s herpes zoster vaccine is expected to become the first approved variety in China, bring large performance increment and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the research and development of new products are less than expected, the sales of traditional vaccines are less than expected, and the market competition pattern intensifies.
