\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 323 Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) )
Performance overview
22q1 Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) net profit attributable to parent company increased by 21.4%, a slight decrease of 0.6pc compared with 2021; The revenue growth rate was 6.3%, 4.2pc higher than that in 2021; Roe (annualized) was 9.1%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8pc; ROA (annualized) was 0.77%, with a year-on-year increase of 5bp. At the end of 22q1, the Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) defective rate was 0.99%, down 1bp from the beginning of the year; The provision coverage rate was 420%, 8pc higher than that at the beginning of the year.
Revenue growth picked up
22q1 Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) revenue grew by 6.3%, up 4.2pc from 2021, mainly due to the growth of interest income and other non interest income; The profit growth rate of 22q1 was 21.4%, which was basically the same as that in 2021. Looking forward to the future, the increase of market share in Suzhou urban area will support the growth of the company’s revenue. At the same time, considering the continuous clearing of stock risks and the substantial thickening of provisions, the company’s profit is expected to maintain a rapid growth. Main supporting factors: ① the scale expansion was accelerated, and the year-on-year growth rate of 22q1 Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) assets increased 1pc to 14.8% compared with the beginning of the year; ② The interest margin rebounded month on month. The net interest margin of 22q1 Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) single quarter (at the beginning and end of the period) increased by 32BP to 2.05% compared with 21q4, and both ends of asset and liability improved. ③ 22q1 Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) cost income ratio decreased by 1.8pc year on year, contributing more to profits. Main drag factors: the growth rate of asset impairment loss has changed from a year-on-year decrease of 10% in 2021a to a year-on-year increase of 1% in 2022q1, and its contribution to profits has weakened.
The interest rate spread rebounded month on month
22q1 Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) single quarter net interest margin (at the beginning and end of the period) increased by 32BP to 2.05% compared with 21q4, and both asset negative sides improved: ① on the asset side, 22q1 Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) single quarter interest bearing asset yield (at the beginning and end of the period) increased by 28bp to 3.84% compared with 21q4, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of retail loans, and the proportion of retail loans in new loans increased from 0.4% of 21q4 to 30.4% of 22q1. ② On the liability side, 22q1 Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) single quarter interest payment liability cost ratio (at the beginning and end of the period) decreased by 5bp to 2.02% compared with 21q4. It is speculated that the reform of deposit pricing mechanism and the decrease of capital cost of market-oriented liabilities will benefit from it.
Strong retail growth
① in terms of scale, 22q1 Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) loans maintained a high growth rate of 22%. ② Regionally, Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) continued to improve the depth and breadth of services in Suzhou urban area. The proportion of loans in Suzhou (excluding Wujiang) increased from 10.6% at the end of 2020 to 17.2% at the end of 22q1. 22q1 Suzhou (excluding Wujiang) increased by 55% year-on-year, supporting credit growth. ③ Structurally, 30.4% of 22q1 Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) new loans are invested in retail loans. Under the general pressure of retail investment of listed banks, Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) retail loans are better than market expectations. ④ In terms of products, Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) increased the investment of personal business loans, which increased by 66% year-on-year at the end of 21.
Provision for substantial thickening
The non-performing rate of 22q1 increased from – 1bp to 0.99% compared with the beginning of the year, and the attention rate increased from – 15bp to 2.41% compared with the beginning of the year. Both indicators have improved quarterly since 2021. At the same time, it can be seen that the net generation rate of real bad TTM in 2021 is equal to 0.27% compared with 21h1, and the overdue 90 + deviation degree is also equal to 28%. The real risk is low and the risk identification is strict. The provision coverage rate of 22q1 was + 8pc to 420% compared with that at the beginning of the year, and the provision level reached the highest level since listing. Looking forward to the future, as the stock risk is gradually cleared, the asset quality is expected to be further improved.
Profit and valuation forecast
Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) revenue momentum repaired, interest margin rebounded month on month, retail sales grew faster than expected, and the provision was significantly thickened. It is estimated that from 2022 to 2024, the net profit of Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) attributable to the parent company will increase by 22.3% / 15.5% / 15.6% year-on-year, corresponding to bps7.5% 87 / 8.58 / 9.41 yuan. Maintain the target price of 7.00 yuan, corresponding to 0.89 times Pb in 2022. The current price corresponds to pb0.00 in 202266 times, 35% of the current price space.
Risk tip: macroeconomic stall and sharp outbreak of adverse.
