\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 985 China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) )
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 62.367 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.038 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 34.07%, ROE (weighted) reached 12.04%, and net operating cash flow reached 35.608 billion yuan. In the first quarter of 2022, the company realized an operating revenue of 17.099 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.78%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.884 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.25%. The substantial growth of the company’s performance mainly benefited from the steady operation of nuclear power and new energy installed capacity and the improvement of market-oriented electricity price of nuclear power.
Nuclear power units have been put into operation one after another, and the company’s power generation has increased significantly due to the superposition of new energy. As of the first quarter of 2022, the company has achieved an installed nuclear power capacity of 23.71gw, an increase of 3.4gw compared with the end of 2020. It mainly benefited from the continuous operation of Fuqing No. 5, Tianwan No. 6 and Fuqing No. 6 units in the first half of 2021 and the first quarter of this year. At the same time, the utilization hours of nuclear power units of the company increased significantly in 2021, reaching 7871 hours, An increase of 250 hours year-on-year. Under the dual growth of installed capacity and utilization hours, the nuclear power generation in 2021 and the first quarter of 2022 reached 1731 and 44.34 billion kwh respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 16.7% and 14.4% respectively. By the first quarter of 2022, the company had installed 8.87gw of new energy (2.63gw of wind power and 6.24gw of photovoltaic power), an increase of 3.62gw compared with the end of 2020. Under the vigorous operation of new energy, the power generation of the company in 2021 and the first quarter of 2022 increased by 68.7% and 37.73% respectively year-on-year. According to the announcement of the company, in 2021, the subsidiary China Nuclear Huineng realized a net profit of 1.275 billion yuan. If calculated based on the reported installed capacity of 6.04gw in 2021, the net profit of the company’s new energy per GW reached 211 million yuan, which is quite profitable for a company with a high proportion of photovoltaic.
The performance in 2022 is expected to achieve high growth and strong certainty of long-term stable growth:
1) in 2022, the market-oriented electricity price of nuclear power will rise. According to the annual market-oriented transaction results of all provinces, the market-oriented electricity price of nuclear power in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other places will rise to varying degrees, of which the price of 16 billion kwh of annual long-term electricity in Jiangsu Province will rise by nearly 20%;
2) benefiting from the rapid production of new energy installed capacity in the medium term, the company plans to reach 30GW of new energy installed capacity by 2025, and is expected to add 5GW annually, providing support for the growth of medium-term performance. The company’s cash flow from operating activities increased steadily, reaching 35.6 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 14.47%. The high-quality cash flow level provides support for the company’s future investment and construction of new energy and nuclear power projects.
3) the long-term new nuclear power project will be put into operation steadily. According to the company’s announcement, the company has a total of 9 units under construction and under construction, of which Zhangzhou units 1 and 2 are expected to be put into operation in 2024 and 2025 respectively, Hainan xiaodui and Tianwan unit 7 are expected to be put into operation in 2026, xudabao units 3, 4, Tianwan 8 and Sanmen unit 3 are expected to be put into operation in 2027, and Sanmen unit 4 is expected to be put into operation in 2028. On April 20, 2022, the national Standing Committee approved six nuclear power units at one time, and the approval progress was accelerated. The company’s units 3 and 4 of Zhejiang Sanmen Nuclear power project were approved. At present, the company is in the early stage of preparation, and the project has more than 10 units. During the “Tenth Five Year Plan” period, the company’s nuclear power units are expected to be put into centralized production, bringing long-term growth space.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 to be 74.224 billion yuan, 78.218 billion yuan and 83.667 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 19.0%, 5.4% and 7.0% respectively, and net profit of 11.444 billion yuan, 12.336 billion yuan and 13.953 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 42.4%, 7.8% and 13.1% respectively; Maintain the investment rating of Buy-A, and the six-month target price is 10.0 yuan.
Risk warning: the policy promotion is less than expected, the project production progress is less than expected, and the safety production risk.
