\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 276 Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) )
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022, realizing an operating revenue of 140 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 17.32 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 68.8%.
Nasal spray influenza vaccine is affected by covid-19 vaccination and is expected to recover significantly in 2022. The decline of the company’s revenue is mainly due to the lower than expected sales of varicella vaccine under the influence of the epidemic. For the company, in the second half of this year, we suggest to focus on the sales recovery of nasal spray influenza vaccine. In the second half of this year, we believe that the impact of covid-19 vaccination will be greatly weakened, and nasal spray influenza vaccine is expected to resume a high level of growth. In addition, the company’s herpes zoster vaccine has been reported for production and accepted. We believe that the product may be approved for listing in early 2023 and is expected to contribute significantly next year. We are optimistic about the business model driven by the two varieties of nasal spray influenza vaccine and herpes zoster vaccine in the future.
The herpes zoster vaccine will be available soon. In terms of product pipeline, herpes zoster vaccine has successfully completed phase III clinical site work and actively promoted the application for production. At present, the vaccine has been accepted. We expect that the product may be approved for marketing in early 2023; The phase I clinical trial of DPT vaccine (three components) was started; Nasal spray of live attenuated influenza vaccine (liquid preparation) has obtained clinical approval and started phase I clinical trial. The company’s R & D pipeline is constantly enriched.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. We expect that the company’s performance from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.9/7.4/1 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 31 / 21 / 15 times respectively. Considering the large market space of influenza vaccine and the upcoming realization of herpes zoster vaccine, we maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of intensified market competition; The risk that the R & D or production report is not as expected; Product sales were lower than expected.
