\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 57 Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) )
Key investment points
Performance summary: the revenue of 22q1 was + 59% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 86% year-on-year, exceeding expectations
The original expected revenue and profit growth rate was 50% - 55%, both exceeding expectations. Revenue in the first quarter / net profit attributable to parent company / deduction of net profit not attributable to parent company: RMB 809 million / 146 million / 124 million, year-on-year + 59% / 86% / 62%. The performance exceeded expectations mainly due to: 1) Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) channels achieved high growth, in which crawler data showed that tmall's growth rate exceeded 50% in the first quarter and OTC and other offline expansion were promoted in an orderly manner. 2) Non recurring gains and losses increased, including financial gains of 21.56 million yuan and government subsidies of 6.16 million yuan. By the end of the first quarter, the company held trading financial assets of about 2 billion yuan.
Non recurring profits and losses drive the improvement of profitability, and the net interest rate deducted from non recurring profits and losses is basically stable. 1) Profit margin: gross profit margin 77.8% (- 0.3pp), net profit margin 18.0% (+ 2.4pp), deducting non net profit margin 15.4% (+ 0.2pp). 2) Expense ratio: the sales / management / R & D expense ratio was 48.0% / 7.6% / 3.8% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.1 / - 0.4 / - 0.7pp.
The period of expenses is wrong, and the net operating cash flow is negative periodically. The net operating cash flow was - 170 million yuan, mainly due to the improvement of the company's bargaining power, the extension of the accounting period of suppliers, and part of the expenses in 21q4 were paid in 22q1.
Continue to be optimistic: product circle expansion and brand strength enhancement
Products: core products stabilize the foundation, and new products create increment.
1) core products: stabilize the status of two popular products and categories of "face cream lotion + sunscreen". Special care cream (more than 4 million bottles sold on November 11, 2001) and sunscreen continued to grow at a high rate. Launch the "high Moisturizing Series" product line to consolidate the status of lotion / face cream. According to Euromonitor, the company ranked 4th in the toner market in 21 years (year-on-year + 3rd).
2) new products: double penetration of efficacy expansion and category innovation. On the one hand, it tried to launch a new product of "whitening + anti-aging". Since the introduction of the light transparent white spot essence in 19 years, 22q1 has been rapidly upgraded; On the other hand, advantageous categories continue to be enriched. According to Euromonitor, the company's facial mask market ranking rose to No. 7; "Double cultivation activating essence" series products are honored with tmall small black box sensitive muscle anti aging essence No.1.
Brand: the market share of main brands continues to increase, and actively develop new brands around "sensitive +".
1) Winona: focus on sensitive muscle repair, with significant head effect. According to Euromonitor, Winona ranked first in the Chinese market of Dermatology grade skin care products in 21 years, with a year-on-year share of + 2PP, nearly the sum of the second and third places in the market.
2) Winona baby: in 21 years, Winona baby, which actively launched the positioning of infant skin care, has emerged in the double 11 and won the top 10 of tmall infant skin care category. It is committed to building a Chinese infant skin care brand.
3) cinema brands: beautyanswers and aoxmed: positioning high-end and focusing on the channels of medical and American hospitals.
Under the impact of the epidemic, the income growth is expected to slow down in April, and actively prepare for 618 to achieve another good result
Under the impact of the epidemic, the growth rate of the company in April is expected to slow down compared with Q1, but April is the off-season of cosmetics, which has little impact on the annual performance, and the performance of Q2 mainly depends on 618. With the company transferring the inventory in Shanghai to the surrounding sub warehouse + agent factory, and the supply chain is returning to work in an orderly manner, the company will actively prepare for 618 and meet the important test in the second quarter.
Profit and valuation forecast
Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) products, channels and brands work together, and there is a large room for the growth of profitability in the future. It is estimated that the company's revenue in 22-24 years will be 5.65 billion yuan, 7.62 billion yuan and 9.82 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 40%, 35% and 29%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.21 billion yuan, 1.64 billion yuan and 2.11 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 40%, 35% and 29%; The current market value corresponds to pe69, 51 and 39 times, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
The risk of intensified market competition, repeated epidemic, the risk that the marketing model cannot adapt to market changes, the risk of relatively concentrated sales platforms, etc.
