\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 915 Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co.Ltd(603915) )
Key investment points
In 2021, the performance increased rapidly, and the sales volume of gnord high-end reducer exceeded 10000 units
In 2021, the company’s revenue was 2.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 34.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 460 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 28.7%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 420 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32.1%; Excluding the impact of equity incentive expenses, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 498 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 34.0%. In terms of products, the business income of gear and cycloid pin gear reducers was 2.13 billion yuan and 517 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 30% and + 20% respectively. The sales volume of gnord high-end reducers exceeded 10000 units (12000 units), and the income reached 165 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 600%. Q4’s single quarter revenue was 690 million yuan, up + 11.5% year-on-year and – 11.7% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 120 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of – 4.2% and a month on month decrease of – 14.3%, mainly due to: 1) the orders of Q4 fell due to the influence of double limit; 2) Benefiting from the reducer business related to melt blown cloth, 2020q4 has a high base.
In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 610 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 5.1% and a month on month increase of – 11.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 65 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 18.55% and a month on month increase of – 44.8%, which was lower than the market expectation. We judged that it was mainly due to the shutdown of the company for a period of time caused by the control of Changzhou epidemic in March.
The gross profit margin is under short-term pressure, and the net profit margin is basically stable excluding the impact of equity incentive
In 2021, the gross profit margin was 27.1%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.2pct; The gross profit margin of 2021q4 was 27%, year-on-year + 0.3pct, month on month -2.1pct. The gross profit margin of 2022q1 was 25.2%, with a year-on-year ratio of -1.2pct and a month on month ratio of -1.8pct. The main reasons are: 1) the price of raw materials rose sharply in 2021 and remains high at present; 2) In 2020, the high gross profit reducer business related to melt blown cloth will increase the base of comprehensive gross profit margin; 3) Since 2021q4, the power rationing & epidemic has affected the prosperity of the industry and intensified the competition of low-end products. In 2021, the net profit margin of sales was 15.6%, year-on-year -0.8pct, and the net profit margin excluding equity payment was 16.9%, year-on-year + 0.44pct. The expense rate during the period was 10.4%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.5pct. Among them, the ratio of sales / Management (including R & D) / financial expenses was – 0.3 / + 0.7 / + 0.1pct year-on-year respectively. The net profit margin of Q4 sales was 16.74%, with a year-on-year ratio of -3.2pct and a month on month ratio of -0.9pct. 2022q1 net profit margin of sales was 10.6%, year-on-year -1.8pct; R & D expenses increased by 12.4% year-on-year.
Continue to increase research and development, and the orders on hand are relatively full
In 2021, the company invested 113 million yuan in R & D, a year-on-year increase of + 44%; In 2022q1, the R & D investment was 35 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 52%, accounting for 5.8% of the revenue (a year-on-year increase of + 2.2pct). By the end of 2022q1, the inventory was 730 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24%; Contract liabilities were 62 million yuan, flat year-on-year, with sufficient orders on hand. The net cash flow from operating activities in 2022q1 was – 140 million yuan (2021q1 0.02 billion yuan), which was mainly due to the large increase in sales in the same period of 2021, the increase in sales collection in cash, the main purchase payment was bank acceptance settlement, and the delay in cash outflow.
GM’s main business grew steadily, with high-end diversification opening up growth space
① grand drive: Zeno high-end reducer competes with sew and other foreign leaders on the same platform, and vigorously develops the lithium slurry mixing reducer Market. Key customers include Honggong technology, Foshan Golden Milky Way Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300619) etc. In December 2021, Zeno signed a strategic cooperation agreement of 28 million yuan with Honggong technology, laying the foundation for development in 2022. ② Construction machinery business: at present, the products have covered tower cranes, excavators, climbing vehicles and other major construction machinery and equipment. In terms of customers, we have successfully developed Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) , Dongqi machinery and other Chinese leaders. ③ Industrial gearbox business: upgrade the original high-power PV series reducer by introducing a foreign team. The upgraded HB series industrial gearbox has the same size and torque / power as the imported reducer to realize import substitution; It is expected that the product will be fully introduced to the market in June 2022, helping the company to expand its market in downstream fields such as cement, coal and electric power.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the impact of the epidemic, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 5.7 (down 12%) / 7.3 (down 18%) / 910 million yuan, and the current market value corresponding to PE is 16 / 12 / 10 times respectively, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tips: macroeconomic downturn risk, epidemic impact risk, raw material price fluctuation risk
